Manufacturing Chain Long、Cover Guang、Impact deep，Related to long -term innovation ability and international competitiveness。For a long period of time，Maintaining the manufacturing (added value) proportion is basically stable for building a new development pattern for my country、Realize high -quality development、Promoting the stability of the economy is undoubtedly a significant strategic significance。

　　The decline in the proportion of manufacturing is not the established law

Large study indicates，Factors affecting the proportion of manufacturing are mainly consumer structure service、The price of the service industry is faster、Manufacturing service outsourcing、Water exports of trade。The first three jointly promoted the long -term downward settlement of the proportion of manufacturing，and in the dominant position，Expanding the net export of trade is conducive to delaying the industrialization process，vice versa、Excessive、Excessive de -industrial pusher。From the perspective of existing theoretical and research，The lower half of the manufacturing added value of the U -shaped curve is often regarded as the universal nature of economic and social development、Objective laws，But a large number of samples of other countries go through the homogeneity、Consistency after fitting，In fact, many small sample heterogeneity is smooth，such as Germany、Japan、Korea、Singapore、Czech Republic、Ireland and other export -oriented economies can still maintain a stable proportion of manufacturing during the high income stage，Korea、Singapore has not yet entered the long -term downward channel。These heterogeneous economies that are different from general trends，Show a higher proportion of net exports/GDP (GDP) and bet365 best casino games high -tech manufacturing ratio，Singapore even rely on the internal structure of the manufacturing industry that is far away from other countries，The manufacturing innovation premium that has achieved the increase in the price increase of the shoulder service。These consistency clues and variables are also reflected in the economic reflection of the economic reflection in the reverse sample，For example, the long -term expanded trade deficit of the United States、High -level stagnation or backward of Britain and French manufacturing、Many emerging economies have risen rapidly in service industry prices。This indicates，The long -term downward trend of the proportion of manufacturing is not full sample、Full process coverage，Economy that enters the high -income stage still has a feasible space for a stable manufacturing industry。

"Excessive" de -industrialization of the western economy、After the "premature" of the country's "prematurely", industrialization has brought many problems and sequelae，Insufficient employment、Investment reduction、Destroy innovation and long -term growth potential，It has aroused general reflection from all walks of life，Policies and measures that are committed to stabilizing the proportion of manufacturing。For example，Germany、Czech Republic has maintained the basic stability of the manufacturing proportion since the mid -1990s，Both benefited from the European integration process、Euro circulation and support export、Technology Innovation、Functional industrial policies for foreign investment and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI)，That is, the government has played more to make up for market coordination and failure、Provide characters that provide a stable macroeconomic environment。Japan introduced the "Basic Law of the Basic Technology of Manufacturing" in 1999，and released the annual white paper since 2002，Analysis of the current status and problems of the manufacturing Bet365 app download industry that year，Introducing several support technology research and development、Supporting policies for talent training。other，Japan actively signed a free trade agreement，Broaden market for its manufacturing export，In the end, the proportion of manufacturing has been stabilized up to 20%after 2000。Korea、Ireland's export orientation and selective industrial policy have also achieved positive results。The former has adopted more domestic alternative strategies for Japan，The latter is widely screened、Introduction to high -tech multinational enterprises，Achieved high -end manufacturing gathering、The virtuous cycle of industrial structure upgrade，but also exposed the problem of excessive relying on foreign capital，Then start paying attention to cultivating local companies。other，Singapore pays attention to application innovation support policies、Industrial Transformation Policy Promote the manufacturing industry to a high value -added、High -tech direction development。

In summary，The above economies are mainly surrounded by net exports、Technical Innovation、Three aspects of industrial upgrading and the material foundation of the above three -expand investment，Public policy formulation and optimization of public policy、Implement and evaluation，To form system coordination、Comprehensive integrated policy system，Effectively corrected the overflow of technology、Loss of coordination、Local and short -term blindness、Market failure brought by external impact，Avoid excessive successfully、Early de -industrialization。

　　Domestic alternative and cutting -edge innovation isTwo big starts

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis，The proportion of manufacturing in my country immediately declined significantly，After fiscal policy stimulus, it is basically stable at 31%-32%level，But when the irritating policy tends to exit，The proportion continued from 32%in 2011 to 26.3%in 2020，Average of about bet365 live casino games 0.6 percentage points in an average annual decrease。Direct motility of this phenomenon，The growth rate of net exports caused by insufficient external demand decreased，Short -term large -scale investment to make up for the reduction of external demand，But the macro leverage rate is high、Stimulating policy exit、The investment rate decreases、High -level manufacturing industry limited、Serviceization of domestic economic cycle and insufficient labor productivity growth in service industry，Promoting the proportion of my country's manufacturing industry decline sharply。

From the perspective of specific data，The net export of manufacturing in my country/GDP tends to fluctuate downward after reaching 13.8%in 2008，Fall to 7.72%in 2018，The investment rate is under the influence of the counter -cyclical policy，from 41.48%in 2007 to the apex of 47.72%in 2010，From 2020 to 43.37%。Not only that，The proportion of the service industry exceeds 50%for the first time in 2015，Economic Services、Under the trend of population aging development, it is also facing the problem of low labor production growth rate of service industry，As a result, the price of the service industry increases sharply。The actual output of my country's manufacturing industry increased by 178%from 2011 to 2020，177%increase in actual GDP，But the increasingly dominated GDP price change of the manufacturing and service industry is obvious，95.8%and 117%, respectively。Drawing on international experience、Combined with the actual situation of China，my country's proportion of manufacturing is undoubtedly needed to slow down the overall price level under the leadership of the service owner.，At the same time, boost manufacturing investment、Export of manufacturing、Accelerate the optimization and upgrade of the industrial structure。2021-2022，The proportion of my country's manufacturing industry has rebounded for the first time after ten years of fluctuations，This is mainly due to the slowdown in the price increase of the service industry Bet365 lotto review than the manufacturing industry、The growth rate of investment in manufacturing、Significant growth of net exports, etc.。

"Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" and the 1035 vision target outline must be clearly proposed to "in -depth implementation of the manufacturing power strategy"，"Keep the proportion of manufacturing is basically stable"。Manufacturing covers many key core areas of the national economy，Always through the high -quality development of the economy，Has the prominent global、Long -term influence，The proportion of stable manufacturing needs to be based on a large domestic cycle、Find the feasible space and path in the context of the increasing dominance of the service economy。

On the one hand，Implement export orientation、Significant expansion of external exports is difficult to meet the current development situation，Only the key core links of the many key core links that are subject to people are prioritized，Implement a domestic alternative strategy for large domestic markets，Transforming more trade is transformed into the added value of the domestic manufacturing industry，At the same time, accelerate the advancement of the internal structure of the manufacturing industry。2017、Input of 2018 and 2020 -Calculation of output table data，A large number of bet365 best casino games high -tech manufacturing in China and steel metallurgy、Trade deficit in industries such as metallurgical machinery accounted for more than 10%of its added value of the year。Adding the trade deficit of the above -mentioned sub -sectors，The proportion of GDP of the year was as high as 4.1%、4%and 3.4%。If this ratio will be effectively transformed into domestic investment in the next ten years、High skill employment、Product innovation premium，It will undoubtedly significantly slow down the de -industrialization pressure in the process of economic serviceization in my country。

On the other hand，A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change waves are turbulent，Domestic service needs are increasingly bet365 live casino games dominated，It must be grasped by cutting -edge technology、New type of format emerging opportunities，Transition more cutting -edge technologies into a domestic manufacturing innovation premium，At the same time, advance the supply -side structural reform of the service industry，slow down the overall price level of the service industry Bet365 lotto review than the manufacturing industry faster。Current，Digital economy is along the data chain，Industrial Internet、Smart Transportation、Smart Medical、Digital education、Fintech and other new models and new formats are paths，Promoting the improvement of quality and efficiency in the manufacturing and service industry，For the manufacturing innovation premium、Slowing the price of the service is too fast to increase the possibility。

　　Explore the new macroeconomic governance system

Keeping the proportion of manufacturing basically stable will run through the modernization process of China for more than ten years，The main battlefield of innovation drive、Common and rich implementation channel、The material basis for the transformation of green low -carbon economy，Have a leap -cycle、The significance of the overall situation。 

For this，China needs to explore a new macroeconomic governance system with the proportion of stabilizing manufacturing as its core。In terms of institutional，Carry out relevant legislative work，Construct a strong legal guarantee for the long -term target task for the proportion of stable manufacturing。In terms of organization，You can try to set up a full -time institution or department，Strategic research of stable manufacturing in coordination and coordination、Policy formulation、Target evaluation、Process Supervision, etc.。In terms of specific policies，Around industrial development、Technical Innovation、Expand net exports and investment to create policy tool boxes，Freedom in economic and social development and openness、Trade technology disputes and security autonomy，Flexible use of different situations and focusing on policy bet365 best casino games tools，Make relevant measures can dynamically converge in one to ensure that the proportion of manufacturing is basically stable、Effective market and a balanced path for the same frequency of the government。

　　(The author is deputy chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center、Professor; Assistant Researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center)