■Joshua Silverinson Interviewee/Photo provided

"bet365 Play online games" is the core content in the field of international relations。Some scholars believe，bet365 Play online games is the decisive factor in a country’s role in international relations，The essence of world politics is "bet365 Play online games politics"。Around "bet365 Play online games"，Political scientists have proposed a series of theories。Among them，The "bet365 Play online games transfer theory" has attracted much attention from academic circles in recent years。Then，Whether the “bet365 Play online games transition theory” can fairly and objectively explain the direction of international relations？About “bet365 Play online games transfer theory”，What are the debates and opinions in the academic community？How to view this theory dialectically，Thus correctly understanding the distribution of global interests？The reporter interviewed relevant scholars，The above issues were sorted out and discussed。

　　The bet365 Play online games transfer theory has limitations

1958，Kenneth Ogensky, professor of political science at the University of Michigan (A. F. Kenneth Organski first proposed the "bet365 Play online games transition theory" in his book "World Politics"。In Ogensky’s view，The ebb and flow of national bet365 Play online games will bring about the dynamic evolution of the international system。He divided countries in the international system into “leading countries” and “rising countries”，believes that the changes and transfers of relative bet365 Play online games between the two determine the changes in the international system。

Orgenski thinks，In addition to the "proximity" of bet365 Play online games，“Satisfaction” with the international order is also an important variable in measuring bet365 Play online games transfer。Satisfaction is determined by the relative relationship between the country’s deserved interests and its actual vested interests。When a rising country accumulates sufficient national strength and becomes powerful，It is easy to become dissatisfied with the current status of the international structure and the interest distribution system with the dominant country as the core，And then require the process of bet365 Play online games transfer to itself to change its international status。

In the book The War Ledger, co-authored with Jacek Kugler，Ogensky defines the critical point of bet365 Play online games transfer this way: when the national strength of a rising country increases to more than 80% of the total economic output of the dominant country，The rising country may become a "challenger"。As the challenger’s relative ability increases，It will seek to redistribute global interests。During the transition period of bet365 Play online games，War may break out between newly rising forces and the original hegemonic forces。When international bet365 Play online games completes a new cycle of transfer from dominant countries to rising countries，The dominant rules of the original international system will be changed，Then creating a new international order。

However，For Ogensky’s argument，There are many debates in the international political science community。Some scholars believe that Ogensky’s assertion that “dissatisfied countries” must be rising countries rather than dominant countries is not valid。According to Ogensky’s theoretical framework，Leading countries are usually satisfied with the status quo of the international system，More inclined to maintain rather than change the status quo，Therefore will not actively provoke conflicts，The possibility of war only arises from a rising bet365 Play online games that is not satisfied with its own interests。But this is inconsistent with the argument of Robert Gilpin, a well-known Western realist international political theory scholar。In Gilpin’s opinion，The hegemonic bet365 Play online games (that is, the dominant country in Ogensky's writing) may also become a dissatisfied party and actively provoke a conflict。Gilpin thinks，Any country will be dissatisfied with reality，Hegemonic powers are no exception。Even if the hegemonic bet365 Play online games is satisfied with its own strength，It is also possible to be dissatisfied with the changing trends of international bet365 Play online games。In this case，The hegemonic bet365 Play online games is likely to launch a preventive war。The purpose of this kind of preventive war launched by a hegemonic bet365 Play online games is to maintain a comparative advantage during the period，Use force to prevent the decline of national strength in the relative competition for bet365 Play online games，Thus eliminating the risk of losing its international hegemonic status。This method is a more attractive option for hegemonic countries。

Joshua Shifrinson, associate professor at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University, USA, told this reporter，Ogenski’s judgment on the outcome of conflicts and wars between rising powers and dominant powers is too one-sided。The bet365 Play online games transfer between emerging powers and declining hegemonic powers may be realized in a peaceful way，We should be optimistic about the direction of the relationship between the two。Emerging countries may not always seek conflict with hegemonic powers，On the contrary, there is enough motivation to avoid conflicts。In many cases，Emerging countries are willing to support and cooperate with hegemonic powers，The "Thucydides Trap" between the two can be avoided。

，If two big countries are geographically far apart，Both parties have strong military strength and regional influence，And it has a domestic environment conducive to its own development，They can resolve disputes between both parties peacefully，At least in theory，The intensity of international competition may decrease。Without a doubt，The anarchy of the international system、Countries’ calculations of their relative benefits，And the tendency to prevent threats，All make it difficult to give up competition。However，This will not essentially hinder the peaceful transformation of the international system。“Considering the balance of bet365 Play online games factors in the balance of bet365 Play online games theory of international relations，I think the threat from China is exaggerated。China has no motive to ‘hunt’ the United States，On the contrary, there are reasons for long-term cooperation with the United States。"Sivrinsen told reporters。

In addition，Many scholars believe that，The bet365 Play online games transition theory puts too much focus on the bet365 Play online games contest between the dominant country and potential challenger countries，Ignoring other states and non-state actors in the international system，This is also contrary to the view of traditional balance of bet365 Play online games theory。According to the balance of bet365 Play online games theory，The evolution of a complete international system should be the result of the interaction of forces from multiple subjects (including state and non-state actors with multiple roles)。The checks and balances between these multiple entities are an important factor in ensuring the normal operation of the international order。Vesna Danilovic, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the State University of New York at Buffalo, stated in the article "bet365 Play online games Balance and bet365 Play online games Transfer: Global Interests at Stake"，bet365 Play online games transfer theory and balance of bet365 Play online games theory are both unique theories in the field of international relations，But there are big differences between the two in how to ensure the stability of bet365 Play online games distribution。bet365 Play online games transfer theory，Maintaining a huge gap (rather than a balance) in the distribution of bet365 Play online games between dominant countries and rising countries is conducive to the stability of the international political landscape。However，The balance of bet365 Play online games theory holds the opposite view。The theory is that，The world is in anarchy，Every country seeks to maximize bet365 Play online games to maintain strength and improve its security index in the international system，The balanced distribution of bet365 Play online games among countries, including major powers, can effectively check and balance the bet365 Play online games of various countries，Thereby limiting the occurrence of conflicts，Maintain a stable international environment。

　　The theory of bet365 Play online games transfer has ideological overtones

Orgensky stated in his work，Generally, conflicts between rising powers and dominant powers are inevitable，However, the hegemonic transfer between Britain and the United States in history has become the only case of "peaceful transfer of bet365 Play online games"。Many scholars have questioned this。Some scholars believe，Although there has never been a direct large-scale war for hegemony between Britain and the United States，But this does not mean that the process of bet365 Play online games transfer between the two countries is peaceful。In fact，During the transfer of bet365 Play online games between the two countries，The world is full of unpeace。In addition to the arms race between the two countries，Both two countries had wars with other major powers at that time。The Anglo-German confrontation and subsequent wars with other countries in the two world wars，All of them caused great losses to Britain’s strength，The former “Empire on which the Sun Never Sets” began to bear huge debts，The hegemonic position has been seriously weakened。At this time，The real beneficiary of the two world wars—the American economy、Military strength continues to increase，Its dominance over the Western European economy has also been further consolidated through the "Marshall Plan" and so on。The United States has emerged in the international political landscape，And led the establishment of the post-war Yalta System and Bretton Woods System。Later，By competing with the Soviet Union、Establishment of NATO and other strategic initiatives，The United States has become the only hegemonic country after the Cold War。To this point，The transfer of bet365 Play online games between Britain and the United States is finally completed。It can be seen from this，bet365 Play online games shifts between Britain and the United States、In the process of evolving and completing the handover，The world is full of struggles and conflicts，And third-party wars between Britain, the United States and other countries。Therefore，Organsky’s assertion that the transfer of British and American hegemony is a “peaceful” transfer is biased。

To this，Deng Chao, associate researcher at the Institute of World History, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, once commented: Ogensky’s theory came out in the early days of the Cold War，Concepts that implicitly or explicitly carry certain ideologies，And full of hostility to non-Western countries。The United States has clearly become the hegemon of the Western world through war after war，Ogensky tried his best to beautify it as a "peaceful" inheritance。Although almost all American scholars claim that their research is based on objective, neutral and rational thinking，And pursue the “scientificization” of bet365 Play online games relations research，But "fashionable" theories with strong ideological color are not uncommon。

　　bet365 Play online games distribution can be a "positive sum game"

American political scientist Joseph Nye (Joseph S. Nye Jr) also defined and analyzed bet365 Play online games。He thinks，bet365 Play online games is the ability to influence others to achieve a certain result。Forced threats、Financial inducement and "using ability to attract others to cooperate" constitute three forms of "exercise of bet365 Play online games"。He divided the bet365 Play online games transformation trends since the 21st century into two major categories: one is the transfer of bet365 Play online games between countries，Represented in today’s world as a shift from West to East；The second is the diffusion of bet365 Play online games from the national level to the non-state level。

In a speech，Joseph Nye discusses the "global bet365 Play online games shift"，When we talk about the first bet365 Play online games shift，Often there is talk of the rise of Asia - this should be called Asia's recovery or comeback。If it goes back to about 1800，We will find that more than half of the world’s people live in Asia，They produce more than half of the world’s products。Fast forward to 1900，Half the world’s people still live in Asia，But at this time they only produce one-fifth of the world's products。What happened in the world during this period？The answer is the Industrial Revolution，This means that Europe and the United States quickly became the dominant center of the world in a short period of time。And what we will see in the 21st century is，Asia’s status as accounting for more than half of the world’s population and accounting for more than half of the world’s products will gradually return。This is an important change in bet365 Play online games in today’s world。When we talk about the second type of bet365 Play online games shift, "diffusion of bet365 Play online games"，Have to realize，The era of only states occupying the international system is over。The country is still important，But the international political arena is crowded: except for countries，There are also many, many non-state actors。Some of these actors are well-intentioned，There are also some who are not well-intentioned。Americans who died in the "9·11" incident planned by terrorist organizations，More Americans died than in the "Pearl Harbor" incident in 1941。This has witnessed a dramatic change in the diffusion of international bet365 Play online games from states to non-governmental actors，Can be considered as a manifestation of the gradual privatization of war。

Joseph Nye thinks，Traditionally，People’s understanding of bet365 Play online games is mainly military bet365 Play online games。For example，British historian Alan John Percival Taylor (A. J. P. Taylor) defines a strong nation as “a nation that can win in war”。But understanding bet365 Play online games in the 21st century requires a new narrative，It should be more than just "winning the war"，The effectiveness of bet365 Play online games must be thought of in terms of multidimensional narratives。Many people think，The only way for humans to resolve differences is through cooperation。Joseph Nye mentioned，The First World War burned the territory of Europe into pieces，Also destroying Europe's central position in the world - all due to the growth of German bet365 Play online games and the fear this growth brought to Britain。He cited forecasts from Goldman Sachs，China’s economy is thought to overtake that of the United States by 2027。If you feel fear because of this expectation，will lead to "overreaction"。He pointed out，“The greatest danger when facing the transfer and handover of bet365 Play online games from west to east is fear。To borrow a phrase from Franklin Roosevelt，What we should fear most is fear itself。We don’t have to worry about the rise of China or the return of Asia。If when formulating foreign policy，Be able to analyze this phenomenon from a historical perspective，We will be able to manage this process well”。

Joseph Nye said in another speech，The rising China will not threaten the status of the United States，Nor do we intend to overthrow the current international order。For the United States，The biggest threat is populist politics from within。In his opinion，The focus is on how countries define their national interests，So that bet365 Play online games distribution is not a zero-sum game，But a positive sum game。All countries should think about how to cooperate in production to their own benefit，Global public goods that are also beneficial to other countries。This will be a key factor that humans need to consider when thinking about bet365 Play online games in the 21st century。