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"Power" is the core content of the field of international relations。Some scholars think，Power is the decisive factor in the role of the state in international relations，The essence of world politics is "power politics"。Around "Power"，Politicians proposed a series of theories。where，"Theory of power transfer" has attracted much attention from academic circles in recent years。So，"bet365 live casino games The theory of power transfer" can the direction of international relations fairly and objectively explained the direction of international relations? Around "The Theory of Power Transfer"，What are the arguments and views of the academic world? How to dialectically treat this theory，Therefore, correctly understand the distribution of global interests? Reporter interviewed relevant scholars，Sort and explore the above problems。

　　Power transfer theory is limited

1958，Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan A. F. Kenneth Organski in its book "Power Transition Theory" for the first time in the book "World Politics" (World Politics "(World Politics)。From Ogen Sky，This disappearance of national power will bring dynamic evolution of the international system。He divides the country in the international system into the "dominant country" and "rising country"，It is believed that the changes and transfer of relative power between the two determine the change of the international system。

Ogen Ski thinks，In addition to the "closeness" of power，"satisfaction" of international order is also an important variable for measuring power transfer。and satisfaction determines the relative relationship of the state's due interest and de facto benefits。When the rising country has accumulated enough national strength and becomes stronger，It is easy to be dissatisfied with the status quo of the international structure and the distribution system with the core of the leading country as the core，Then the process of turning power to self -transfer to itself to change its international status。

In the book of "The War Ledger", which is co -authored by Jacek Kugler,，Ogen Sky's critical point of defining power transfer: Bet365 lotto review When a country's strength of a rising country grows to more than 80%of the total economic volume of the leading country，Then the rising country may become "challenger"。With the increase of the relative ability of the challenger，It will seek to re -assign global interests。During the transition period，The war broke out between the newly rising forces and the original hegemony forces。When international power completes a new round of the cycle of transfer from the leading country to the rise of the rising country，The dominant rules of the original international system will be changed，Then generate new international order。

But，The argument for Ogenceki，There are many controversy in the international political academic community。Some scholars believe that Oggoski must be a rising country rather than the leading country of the "dissatisfaction country".。According to the theoretical framework of Ougenzki，Leading country is usually satisfied with the status quo of the international system，More tendency to maintain rather than change the status quo，Therefore, it will not take the initiative to provoke the conflict，The possibility of war is only from the rising country that is not satisfied with its own interests。But this is inconsistent with the arguments of Robert Gilpin, a well -known realist international political theory in the West,。From the view of Gilping，Hegemony (that is, the dominant country in Ougenzki) may also become an dissatisfaction party and actively provoke conflict。Gilping thinks，Any country will be dissatisfied with reality，Hegemony great country is no exception。Even if the power of hegemony is satisfied with its own strength，It may also be dissatisfied with the trend of changes in international power。In this case，The power of hegemony is likely to launch a preventive war。The purpose of the hegemonic country to launch this kind of prevention war is to retain the relative advantage in itself，To prevent their national strength from being declining in the relative competition of power，So as to eliminate the risk of losing its international hegemony position。This means is a more attractive choice for hegemony country。

Joshua Shifrinson, Associate Professor of Padi Global Research Institute of Boston University in the United States, told this reporter，Ogenceki's judgment bet365 best casino games on the end of the rise and the leading country with the leading country is too one -sided。The power transfer between the power transfer between emerging great powers and the dying hegemonic power may be realized in a peaceful way，The relationship between the two should be optimistic。Emerging countries may not always seek conflict with the power of hegemony，There is enough motivation to avoid conflict。In many cases，Emerging countries are willing to support hegemonic powers and cooperate with them，The "Xiu Xi Dade Trap" between the two can be avoided。

Calculating Severinsen，If the geographical location between the two big powers is far apart，Have strong military strength and regional influence with each other，Domestic environment that is conducive to its own development，They can solve the dispute between the two parties in peace，At least theoretically，The intensity of international competition may be reduced。No doubt，Anarchi status of the international system、The calculations of various countries on their own relative benefits，and the tendency of preventing threats for prevention，All make the competition difficult。But，This will not hinder peace changes in the international system in nature。"Considering the factors of power balance in the theory of international relations，I think the threat from China has been exaggerated。China does not exist in the motivation of ‘hunting’ American，Instead, there are reason to cooperate with the United States for a long time。"Severinsen said to reporters。

，Many scholars think，Power transfer theory places too much focus on the power contest between the leading country and the potential challenge country，and ignored other countries and non -national behavior in the international system，This also runs "。According to the theory of balance，The evolution of a complete international system should be the result of the interaction between the interaction of multiple subjects (including countries and non -national behavior) of multiple subjects (including countries and non -national behavior)。The mutual balance between these multi -subjects is an important factor to ensure the normal operation of the international order。VESNA Danilovic, deputy professor of political sciences in the State University of New York State University, said，bet365 live casino games The theory of power transfer theory and the theory of common potential is the unique theory in the field of international relations，But there are great differences in how to ensure the stability of power distribution。The theory of power transfer believes，Maintaining a huge gap between power distribution between the dominant country and the rising country is conducive to the stability of the international political pattern。But，The view of the theory of the balance of potential theory is the opposite of this。This theory thinks，The world is in an anarchy order，Various countries seek to maximize power to maintain their strength and improve their security index in the international system，and the balanced distribution of power included in the country between countries can effectively check the power of each country，to restrain the occurrence of conflict，Maintain a stable international environment。

　　Power transfer theory with ideology

Ogenceki said in its works，Conflicts between rising countries and leading countries under normal circumstances are inevitable，But the hegemony of Britain and the United States in history has become the only case of "power peaceful transfer"。Many scholars have questioned this。Some scholars think，Although there have been no direct large -scale hegemony for war between Britain and the United States，But does not mean that the process of power transfer between the two countries is peaceful。In fact，During the transfer of power between the two countries，The world is full of discomfort。Except for military reserve competitions between the two countries，Both countries had war with other major powers at the time。Yingde confrontation and war that occurred with other countries in other countries in the later World War，All caused Britain's strength to greatly lose，The "Nothing Empire" in the past began to bear huge debts，The status of hegemony is severely weakened。At this time，The real beneficiary of the two World War -US economy、Military strength is continuously enhanced，Its right to dominate the Western European economy is also further consolidated through the "Marshall Plan"。The United States emerged in the international political structure，and dominate the establishment of the post -war Yalta system and the establishment of the Bretton Forest system。Later，By competing with the Soviet Union、bet365 Play online games Establishing strategic measures such as NATO organizations，The United States has become the only hegemonic country after the Cold War。So far，British and American power transfer is finally completed。This can be seen，Power changes between Britain and America、In the process of evolution and complete the transfer，The world is full of struggle and conflict，and the third party war between Britain and the United States and other countries。So，Ogen Sky transferred British and American hegemony as a "peace" transfer.。

For this，Deng Chao, an associate researcher at the Institute of World History of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, commented: Ougenzki's theory came out in the early Cold War，or dark or secretly with certain ideological concepts，and hostile to non -Western countries。The United States clearly becomes a Western world overlord through a war in the United States，Ogen Ski tried to beautify it into a "peace" inheritance。Although almost all American scholars have claimed that their research is based on objective neutral rational thinking，"Scientific" of the research of international relations，But the "fashionable" theory with strong ideology is not uncommon。

　　Power distribution can be "Zhenghe Game"

American political scholar Joseph S. Nye JR) has also defined and analyzed power for power。He thinks，Power is the ability to obtain a certain result for others。Compulsory threat、Money temptation and "attracting cooperation with others" constitute three forms of "exercise of power"。He divides the trend of power change since the 21st century into two categories: First, the power transfer between the country，In today's world, it is shifted from the west to the east; the second is the spread from the national level to the non -national level.。

In a speech，Joseph Naiya Available around "Global Power Transfer" discussions，When we talk about the first power transfer，Usually talk about the rise of Asia -this should be called the recovery or regression of Asia。If you go back to around 1800，We will find that more than half of the people in the world live in Asia，They produced more than half of the world's products。Enter in 1900，Half of the world still lives in Asia，But at this time, the products they produce only account for one -fifth of the world。What happened to the world in this period? The answer is the industrial bet365 Play online games revolution，This means that Europe and the United States quickly become the leading center of the world in a short time。And what we will see in the 21st century is，Asia accounts for more than half of the world's population and more than half of the world's products will gradually return。This is an important change in the power of the world today。When we talk about the second kind of power transfer, "power spread"，I have to recognize，Only when the country occupies the international system is over。The country is still important，But the international political stage is very crowded: except for the country，There are many non -governmental behaviors。Some of these behaviors are goodwill，There are also some non -goodwill。Americans who died in the "9 · 11" incident planned by the terrorist organization，More Americans who died in the "Pearl Harbor Incident" in 1941。This has witnessed the huge changes in international power from the spread of the state from the state to the non -governmental behavior，It can be considered as a manifestation of war gradually to privatization。

Joseph Nai believes，Traditionally，People's understanding of power is mainly military power。For example，British historian Alan John Popal Taylor (A. J. P. Taylor) defines the power as "a country that can win in the war"。But understanding the power of the 21st century requires a new narrative，It should not be just "win in the war"，Think about the effectiveness of power from the perspective of multi -dimensional narrative。Many people think，The only way for humans to solve differences is cooperation。Joseph Naiti to，First World War burned the territory of Europe in four splits，At the same time, it destroys the central position of Europe in the world -all of this stems from the growth of German power and the fear of this growth to Britain。He quoted the forecast name of Goldman Sachs Group，China's economy is considered to surpass the United States in 2027。If you have a sense of fear due to this expectation，will lead to "excessive reaction"。He pointed out，"The greatest danger in the face of the transfer and east of the east to the east is the fear。Borrow a word from Franklin Roosevelt，What we should feel most afraid is the fear itself。We don’t have to worry about the rise of China or the return of Asia。If the foreign policy is formulated，Can analyze bet365 live casino games this phenomenon from the perspective of great history，We can manage this process well "。

Joseph Nai talked about in another speech，China will not threaten the status of the United States，I don’t intend to overthrow the current international order。For the United States，The biggest threat is the populist politics from the inside。In his opinion，The point is how to define its own national interests，so that the distribution of power is not zero -sum game，but Zhenghe Game。All countries should think about how to cooperate together to produce for yourself，At the same time, global public products that are profitable to others。This will be a key factor that humans need to consider when thinking about the power of the 21st century。