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Artificial Intelligence (Artificial Intelligence,AI) is the current high -frequency word,It is generally considered to be a leader of universal technology or "the fourth industrial revolution" and "second machine revolution"。Professor Richard Baldwin, a professor at the School of High -level International Relations of Geneva, Switzerland, proposed after investigation and analysis,Every major technical change will contribute to the social transformation of society (The Great Transformation),And society must respond to various problems in the transition period through some necessary adjustment or even thorough changes。This article will briefly discuss why the era of artificial intelligence has begun、What kind of impact will employment in the era of artificial intelligence be affected and what straise strategies can be taken。
The era of artificial intelligence is coming
If the "Deep Blue" of the International Commercial Machine Company (IBM) in 1997 defeated the international chess master Gari Kasparov just a computer computing power trial,So the "AlphaGo) in Google in 2016 defeated the Go World Champion、Korean player Li Shishi is considered an iconic event for the rise of artificial intelligence。The victory of "Alpha Go" makes people see,Since the birth of "Deep Blue", artificial intelligence technology has become increasingly mature,has obtained a series of breakthroughs。The main differences between "Deep Blue" and "Alpha bet365 live casino games Go" are that the former depends on the clear instructions (procedures) given by the programmer to perform the logic -based logic calculation,and the latter can use machine learning (Machine Learning) to discover and identify the modes of past data,Non -automatic adjustment of algorithms in the model (algorithm),To better fit the data,This is why it is called artificial intelligence。
The rise of artificial intelligence is mainly based on the leap development of digital technology and the explosive growth of big data。We can summarize with four laws、Show the rapid development of digital technology: one is the Moore ’s Law about data processing capabilities,The number of components that can be accommodated on the integrated circuit will increase by 1 times every 18 months,This means that its performance will also be increased by 1 times。The second is Gilder ’s Law,The bandwidth of the main network increases by 1 times every 6 months,twice the increase in 12 months,Its growth rate is 3 times that of the Moore's Law Foundation's forecast of growth rate。The third is the Metcalf ’s Law about the improvement of network value,The value of a network is equal to the square of the number of nodes in the network,In other words,With the increase of the number of network users,The value of the entire network will show index growth。The fourth is the Varian ’s Law,The combination of free digital components and high -value digital products can promote combined innovation to present explosive growth。
For the past 10 years,The rise of the platform economy and social media,Smart terminals are also popular,The large amount of data collected and generated by it has not bet365 Play online games only become a valuable resource,also made big data -based algorithms develop greatly。From the voice assistant on smartphones to speakers that are implanted with smart voice interactive technology,Then to the car's fully autonomous driving system,Many artificial intelligence products have entered our lives,Silently declare the era of artificial intelligence。
A greater impact on the employment market
The change brought by the first and second industrial revolution,Makes the population of western countries pouring from rural areas,Its employment field also shifted from agriculture to industry,and caused the first wave of globalization。After experiencing the third industrial revolution led by information and communication technology (ICT),Western society has entered the "post -industrial era" that American sociologist Daniel Bell refers to,In many Western countries, especially the British and American countries,The number of employment population that manufacturing can absorb is constantly decreasing,The service industry, especially the modern service industry, has become a leading industry。So,What impact will the fourth industrial revolution led by artificial intelligence bring on these countries?
Two researchers at Oxford University, Karl Frey and Michael Osburn in 2013,Classification based on the decomposition of the task of automated work and the occupation dependent on these tasks,Technically speaking,Nearly half of the job in the United States may be replaced by artificial intelligence -related products such as robots。And a survey display of McKinsey Consulting in 2018 on a large -scale bet365 Play online games multinational company executive shows,Most senior executives believe that in the process of realizing business digitalization,More than 1/4 employees from 2023 will receive re -training or be directly replaced。different from the previous three industrial revolution,In the industrial revolution led by artificial intelligence this time,Provided a large number of leading industries for Western countries -service industry,and the main force of the income class, the office of ordinary white -collar workers in the office will also be directly affected。From the perspective of job position,Those involved information collection processing、The work that contains predictable physical activity is most likely to be replaced by artificial intelligence,Involved management、R & D、Interpersonal interaction or jobs that include unpredictable physical activity will be retained。In other words,Those work containing creative intelligence and social intelligence (Social Intelligence) will be less affected,This is exactly where human comparative advantages are。other,The first industrial revolution lasted for nearly a century,The Third Industrial Revolution has also lasted for more than 50 years,But the progress of this industrial revolution led by artificial intelligence will far exceed the front,Expert prediction,2020-2030 is the time period that artificial intelligence is most likely to fully deploy in place,This means that time is left to the Western social adjustment to deal with related changes.。
Take into account efficiency and fairness
About the impact of employment of the Fourth Industrial Revolution,A possible scenario is "Everything bet365 best casino games is always the same" or "the practice of continuing the past" (Business-As-user),Because in the long run,,Major technical changes will not only significantly increase social labor productivity,It will also create a new job。But it will be difficult for us to determine how the progress will have on the society and whether the society can bear these impacts。Considering that the economic growth of Western countries and increasingly increasing the problem of inequality,If there are a large number of service industry employees unemployed and enter the people who were originally unemployed for a long time,will bring great challenges to the stability of social order and the legality of the system。Since the 1980s,Britain and the United States began to vigorously implement new liberal economic policies,Respect privatization and free market,Oppose government intervention economy,Simply reduce public expenditure at the same time。In the Third Industrial Revolution process,A large number of manufacturing jobs are replaced or transferred,and the public rarely can share the income brought by automation and globalization,This has caused strong dissatisfaction。In this context,Using the so -called universal basic Income instead of replacing the existing social welfare system in the United States into people's vision。Although this idea has not been widely recognized,But it has become more and more valued by political and economic people。
Different ideas with the market with Britain and the United States mainly rely on the market to solve employment problems,European countries generally attach importance to the government's regulating role in the employment market,Among them, the bet365 Play online games practice of the Nordic countries represented by Denmark is worthy of special introduction。Denmark adopted a system called flexible safety or flexibility (Flexicurity),Briefly speaking, this is a policy that hires freedom of freedom and protection of workers,Its core is to protect workers but do not protect jobs。Specifically,This policy is mainly composed of three aspects: First of all, employers enjoy the freedom of firing and recruiting (employees) according to the needs of the market; secondly,For example, the unemployment allowance can reach 90%of its original salary, but the maximum must not exceed 2000 euros per month;,Provide full and powerful guarantee measures to promote the replacement workers' re -employment,Relevant measures include re -employment training、Provide job assistance assistance and consultation service、Give the salary subsidy for re -enable operators。It is because of the existence of such an elastic security network,Denmark and other countries in recent decades have been controlled in a reasonable range。Unemployment is not the end of the world for Danish people,For ordinary Americans,Once you are unemployed, you may fall into a permanent debt trap。
The pace of technological progress may be difficult to stop,The consequences of technological progress can be selected。Facing the Fourth Industrial Revolution,How to weigh between national conditions and weighs between production efficiency and social fairness and build a system of interest and practical and feasible system,It is a topic that all countries need to think about。
(Author Unit: School of Law of Ocean University of China)
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