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The classic theory of "crisis stability" was born in the Cold War period of the US -Soviet Fierce Army Competition after World War II，It is a proprietary term tailor -made for strategic scholars to use nuclear forces to deter each other under hostile state，closely related to the concepts such as "nuclear weapons" and "first blow"。"The first blow" means that a country first uses nuclear weapons to launch a sudden attack to the other party，to master strategic initiative。In the era of nuclear，The decision -making rationality of national leaders is important to maintain "crisis stability" for both parties in conflict。

　　"Crisis Stability" based on deterrent theory

Since the birth of nuclear weapons，Pessimist establishes a negative connection between "nuclear deterrence" and "stability"。1959，Aurt Walls Tate, a nuclear strategic expert in Rand Corporation in the United States, published an article "Faint Horror Balance" in "Foreign Affairs"，It laid a solid foundation for the development of early nuclear strategic ideas in the United States。He deeply revealed the vulnerability of the so -called "horror balance" between nuclear powers，Negative the effectiveness of ensuring the destruction strategy centered on nuclear deterrence; emphasizing that the opponent may take a nuclear war at the risk of the huge price and sacrifice，Strategic deterrence is unreliable，The United States will not stop the Soviet Union's non -warning nuclear offensive。So，He advocates that the United States must strengthen the power of nuclear revenge，That is, the "second blow ability" that successfully countered the "first blow" launched by the Soviet Union。

Optimists pay more attention to the deterrent effect of the huge power accompanied by nuclear weapons。Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland、The Nobel Prize winner Thomas Shelin's book "The Strategy of bet365 live casino games Conflict" published in 1960，The deterrent strategy represented by the use force of threatening use as the correct choice of the nuclear era，Define "crisis stability" as: when the crisis erupts，If the income from the success of the raid is far less than the cost of war，Then neither side of the sides will have the impulse to make a premier man。Therefore，The key to ensuring strategic stability is not for disarmament，Instead, let each other believe that the other party has not implemented the "first blow" motivation。The 1970s and 1980s，New York University Political Scholars Steve Blames uses gaming theory to analyze the conflict between the superpowers，In "Threat Upgrade and Crisis Stability: An Analysis of a Game Theory", the analysis model of the "crisis stability" in the nuclear era was established based on deterrence theory，It is believed that it is a kind of even if the conflict is upgraded to the crisis.，Decision makers can also prevent the structural characteristics of the war，Its core theory is to avoid the loss of crisis out of control. No party has the motivation for the preemptive crackdown。"Crisis Stability" is regarded as "the freedom to give both parties to the provocative behavior、The ideal state of controlling the risk of unlimited risks。

In essence，"Crisis Stability" is not a study of war，but about how the country cleverly use military forces to maximize its own interests、At the same time, the theory of armed conflict will not occur at the same time。When the relationship between the country is tense，"Stability" becomes a key question。The two superpowers of the United States and the Soviet Union have continuously enhanced the survivability of their strategic forces through arms competitions，At the same time, reduce the destructive power of the opponent's retaliation force。The "stability" of the polar pattern to a large extent depends on the maintenance of the United States and the Soviet Union to maintain a "subtle balance" in military strength，That is, by creating a considerable strategic force to make either party not have the significant advantage of "first blow"。

"Crisis stability" and bet365 Play online games the benefits of "first blow" and the willingness to counterattack in retaliation are related to the two elements。On the one hand，How much the income brought by the offensive first becomes a decisive factor。For the conflict between the conflict，If a country's launch suddenly attacked, it has obvious advantages，Then "the first blow" is worth trying; if the income generated by a sudden attack is less than the cost，Then the willingness to launch the offense will be greatly reduced，"Crisis stability" can also be realized。On the other hand，It is also important to have the willingness to have retaliated counterattack。The premise of "stability" in the state of crisis is that any party fully understands that the other party has both the ability and willingness to make retaliated counterattack。It is worth noting that，The conflict may have a strong motivation to develop a premier person based on the misunderstanding of the wrongdoing。So，"Crisis Stability" is not an absolute static state，but a process of dynamic changes。Breaking the "ingenious balance" established by the conflict between the two parties will promote the evolution of "crisis stability" into "crisis instability"。From this perspective，"Crisis Stability" is an art that walks on the edge of conflict。

　　Decision rationality based on the "cautious principle"

In the two pole landscapes upgraded by the nuclear arms reserve competition，The "crisis stability" between the United States and the Soviet Union becomes a prevents danger from getting out of control、Avoid the structural characteristics of the World War。Professor Frank Zagari, a professor at the Political Science Department of the State University of New York State University, regards "upgrade" as a common phenomenon in the decision -making category，"，It is particularly related to national security and crisis decisions "。Nuclear strategists attribute the credit and restraint of the Cold War "Changhe" in the tension.，That is the game rules of "crisis stability "-" Principles Principles "。

Looking at the entire Cold War，The United States and the Soviet Union are on the verge of war。But，Bet365 lotto review Just as Frank Harvey, Director of the Foreign Policy Research Center of Dalhos University in Canada，Although the leaders of the United States and the Soviet Union are always facing strong political and psychological pressure、Mutual trust and ideological differences and cooperation obstacles in security affairs，But both sides developed the strategy to deal with the other party。In fact，Given that any action has the risk of upgrading to war，The crisis involved in the nuclear country is increasingly displayed.。The famous American Cold War Historian John Gadis once said，No one is based on the scope of "arbitrary and artificial segmentation forces、Instead of morality and justice "post -World War II international system has great expectations，But its vitality is doubled than the international order after the First World War。The stability of the polar pattern in the Cold War era is related to the reason and prudence of the leaders of the leaders of the nuclear country.。

"Principles" is fully implemented in the use of nuclear weapons，In the more than 40 years of nuclear arms competition，American and Soviet, which is also a nuclear country, chose to use the military field as the main arena，But never really put the powerful nuclear weapons to implement it。So far，In the end of World War II to accelerate the end of the war、Reducing the use of atomic bombs in Japan's use of atomic bombs has also become an orphan case for international politics decision -making。Founder of structural realism theory Kennis Walz once pointed out，The "Simpleness and the Strong Pressure" generated by the pole structure make the two superpowers "conservative"，Countries with nuclear weapons are more hoped to avoid war than countries with nuclear weapons.。This coincides with Xie Lin’s "Defense Self -Defense"，That is, each party in the conflict tries to ensure that the ability and threat of the other party can be reduced by ensuring that their weapons and military forces are not destroyed.，instead of seeking absolute advantages with the offensive means of pre -issuing people。

　　Decision -making rationality based on crisis management

Crisis due to the conflict between the country's Bet365 lotto review interests is the normal state of international politics。According to historical records，Since the outbreak of the First World War, the world has produced 450 international crisis，45%of them have no armed conflict，This is due to the keen risk awareness and effective crisis management of decision makers。The essence of crisis management is not to avoid the occurrence of crisis，Instead of maintaining a cautious balance in preventing the outbreak of the war and defending the core of the country。

The crisis has considerable variability，Facing the risk of upgrading at all times。Upgrade refers to the intensification of the dispute between the conflict or the intensification of the tension，The party that promotes the upgrading of the crisis aims to obtain an advantage at the cost of sacrificing the opponent。Unilateral actions of any party will inevitably cause countermeasures，Crisis will naturally go to upgrade，This causes huge uncertainty。Effective crisis management should be developed by the situation、Even worsening makes predictions and actively respond to。Because upgrading is almost an inevitable trend of the development of the international crisis，Make sure "crisis stability" becomes an important condition for avoiding controllable development as out of control。

"Crisis Stability" is a positive constraint on the situation of crisis upgrades，Depending on the decision maker's perception of danger and the awareness of risk management and control，The decision -making rationality at the time of crisis is also closely related to the subjective judgment of the leader and personal preference，It requires any party to clearly recognize the potential instability brought by the launch of the "first blow"，and the opportunity window for the outbreak of the conflict before the crisis is out of control。When the country is facing an offense or a strategic choice of defense，Decision maker's intention to both parties、Ability、The cognition and evaluation of determination and action has become a decisive factor affecting the "crisis stability"。For example，Before the First World War，Leaders bet365 Play online games of the Allied countries firmly believe that launching offensive can bring great benefits to the country，So the focus of foreign policies is on the rapid mobilization of armed forces，Learning to break the diplomatic efforts，In the end, it is irreparable to war。and the Cold War period，Although the world is facing the devastating disaster of nuclear war，But created several classic cases of crisis management。As Harvard University Professor Joseph Nai said，After World War II，"Crisis replacement center war becomes the normal state of international politics"。In the era of nuclear，The devastating of the war is too great，Instead, the super country actually adopts the behavior of "cautious regulations"。Under the serious confrontation of ideology，The United States and the Soviet Union have common interests in avoiding the nuclear war，A "horrible balance" formed。

Cold War period，Message to ensure the controllability of bilateral relations in the deterrent policy of mutual checks and balance，The balance between the offensive and defensive strategy of the two parties is compared to the option for the game of the great power，Strive to keep the crisis in a stable state through effective strategic defense，At the same time，Make sure the country's survival is ensured by curbing the occurrence of upgrades。"Crisis Stability" theory shows huge vitality in the bipolar pattern of the US -Soviet military confrontation，Although the international community after the Cold War is temporarily not facing conflict and competition between super powers，But as long as the international crisis will happen，But as long as the international crisis will happen，Then it is still applicable to international relations after the Cold War。

Fundamental speaking，The theory of "Crisis Stability" is designed to avoid war rather than winning war。Maintaining the stability in the state of crisis must not only relieve the military tension in real politics，It is also necessary to relieve the emotion and psychological pressure of the decision makers。Potential conflicts Establishing high -level dialogue and extensive communication are extremely bet365 best casino games important for management and control risks。continuous、Effective strategic interaction not only helps objectively assess the strength and intention of the opponent，It can also prevent errors perception and excessive reactions caused by suspicion and trust deficit，Therefore, the possibility of developing "stability" into "instability" is minimized to the lowest。

　　(This article is the U.S. Strategy Selection of China and Coppering China on the Period of Crisis -based Stability and Copy of China "(2016M592159) (2016M592159)

(Author Unit: School of Political and Public Management of Qingdao University)