At present, my country has opened a new journey of a comprehensive construction of a socialist modernization country，Based on the new development stage，Implement the new development concept，Build a new development pattern，Reducing income gap is one of the important tasks。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China，my country's economy has changed from high -speed growth to the development stage of the mid -to -high -speed new normal development stage，In this process，An important economic variables such as income gap between regional revenue and population flow in my country have changed a trend change。These changes have an important impact on changes in the income gap between urban and rural residents，It is also the main driving force that determines the trend of income gap between urban and rural residents in the future。Discussing the gap between urban and rural income needs to be carried out in the context of the current economic development stage.。

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With the development stage of my country's economy from high -speed growth to the new normal development stage of medium and high speeds，The regional income gap and the population flow have a trending change: First, the regional income gap has expanded from expanding to narrowing，At present, there is a trend of convergence; the second is from high、The ratio of urban resident population in low -income regions see，The speed of population flows from low -income to high -income regions is greatly slowed down，There is even a reverse flow; the third is that the population of the population in high -income areas from rural areas to town has begun to slow，Low -income areas due to the significant level of urbanization than high -income areas，At present, bet365 best casino games it still maintains a faster growth rate，There is a trend of convergence in both。Since the 1990s，The income gap index of urban and rural residents in our country has undergone staged changes from rising to basically stable and slow down，In recent years, it has basically stabilized at about 2.6。

According to theoretical and empirical analysis，The main factor affecting the income gap between urban and rural residents in my country is the ratio of non -agricultural and agricultural labor productivity、The proportion of agriculture engaged in agriculture in rural labor，and the ratio of the salary of urban employees to migrant workers，Increasing these three ratio will expand the gap between urban and rural income。

1995-2007 The main reasons for the rapid rise in urban and rural residents' income，It was the initial stage of industrialization in my country and the surpassing stage of non -agricultural labor, especially industrial labor productivity increased sharply，caused by agricultural labor productivity。In the same period, the labor force quickly transferred from agriculture to non -agricultural during the industrialization process，A decrease in the proportion of agriculture engaged in rural practitioners，The expansion of the income gap between urban and rural residents plays a certain degree of alleviating effect。Early high reform and opening up、The income gap between low -income regions is continuously expanded，The rapid flow of population from low -income to high -income areas，It also reduces the income gap between urban and rural residents to a certain extent。With my country's economy began to change from high speed to medium and high -speed stages，The main feature is that the growth rate of industry and GDP began to slow down significantly，When the growth rate of agricultural labor productivity has not decreased significantly，The ratio of labor productivity of non -agricultural and agriculture has risen sharply in the early stage，Basically remained stable or even decreased slowly from 2010-2018，This is the income gap between urban and rural residents after 2010.，The main reason bet365 live casino games for maintaining stability in recent years。The increase in the proportion of non -agricultural industry in rural labor has always played a role in narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents。

From theoretically,，The changing trajectory of the income gap between urban and rural residents in our country basically meets the "inverted U -shaped" hypothesis and Lewis development method of Kuznets，that is, with the economic growth and development，The income gap between urban and rural residents has initially risen，After a stable and downward decline。The main driving force in it can basically be explained by the mechanism explained by the Kuznets hypothesis and the Lewis development method，First, the non -agricultural labor productivity in urban areas has increased significantly，The ratio of non -agricultural and agricultural labor productivity has increased significantly，Later, the labor population moves from agriculture to non -agricultural transfer，The population flows from low -income areas to high -income areas.，Transfer from rural to town。Expressing over time，This flow makes capital income and labor income between regions and departments to converge，The gap reaches the vertex of the "inverted U -shaped" curve，Starting down。

　　Accurately study and judge the trend of future urban and rural income gaps 

ratio based on non -agricultural and agricultural labor productivity、The proportion of agriculture engaged in agriculture in rural labor，The ratio of the wages of urban employees to migrant workers, etc.，You can get a general judgment of the trend of income gap between urban and rural residents。

From the ratio of non -agricultural and agricultural labor productivity,，Most research predicts that my country's future GDP and the added value of non -agricultural industries will continue to decrease，Plus will continue to transfer from low -efficiency agriculture to non -agricultural transfer，This leading to the further improvement of agricultural labor productivity，In the future, the ratio of non -agricultural and agricultural labor productivity will have a steady or slow downward trend。Current，The proportion of agriculture engaged in agriculture in rural labor generally shows a trend of decline，Under bet365 best casino games the guidance of the current national urban and rural integration development strategy，It is expected to continue to decline，The speed of decline depends on the future investment in agriculture and rural areas、The rise of agricultural productivity and the development of urban and rural integration。The long -term trend of the wage ratio of urban employees to migrant workers depends on the level of rural education and human capital and the gap with the level of urban education and human capital。Because the national education level has shown a trend of convergence，Therefore, it is predicted that the future trend is slowly decrease。The faster urbanization of low income than high -income areas will also play a role in narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents。

Take a comprehensive，The ratio of non -agricultural and agricultural labor productivity、Entering agricultural proportion in rural labor，and the ratio of the ratio of the wages of urban employees to migrant workers will play a positive role in narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents，Investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure in the implementation of the state、Promoting urbanization process in low -income areas、Strengthen the investment in rural education、Human capital and other measures to improve rural labor will play a positive role in reducing the income gap between urban and rural residents。The trend of the income gap between urban and rural residents in the future is high.，The income gap between urban and rural residents from expanding to narrowing has arrived。

It is worth noting that，With the change of my country's economy to the new normal，Between the current region、Between urban and rural areas、The gap between agricultural and non -agricultural productivity ended the stage of rapid change and entered a state of convergence and relatively stable。For a long time in the future，Although the overall trend of the income gap between urban and rural residents is a decline，But the decrease will be relatively slow，The income gap between urban and rural residents will still be at a high level。According to the author’s prediction，By bet365 live casino games 2030, the income gap between urban and rural residents will slowly drop from the current 2.6 to about 2.1，Still a higher level。Considering rural residents in social services、Infrastructure、There is a large gap between the wealth of residents and the city，The gap between urban and rural areas in the future is still significant。

　Continue to reduce the income gap between urban and rural residents 

First, it is necessary to face up to the arduousness and long -term nature of narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas and urban and rural integration。At present, my country has entered a new stage of development，Some key variables have a turning point。Although we judge the trend of the future income gap between urban and rural areas is a decline，But the absolute gap is still larger for a long period of time，And the growth rate of rural residents' income will also decrease due to the decline in GDP growth rate。Therefore，You need to see the gap between urban and rural areas、The arduousness and long -term nature of realizing the development of urban and rural integration，It should be formulated to focus on continuously increasing farmers' income、practical、Development goals combined in long -term combination。

The second is to continue to increase investment in rural and agriculture。Look at it from international comparison，There is still a lot of room for improvement in the absolute and relative level of agricultural labor productivity of agricultural labor in my country。The central government proposed，Village revitalization is first of all industrial revitalization、Talent Revitalization，Whether it is industrial revitalization, talent and cultural revitalization，All need to be realized by increasing investment in rural and agriculture。Fiscal policy is increasing at the same time，It is also necessary to play a role in leading social capital investment，Encourage agricultural enterprises and entrepreneurs to do something，At the same time, pay attention to protecting the interests of farmers。

Third, we must pay attention to the impact of returning to entrepreneurship on the income of rural residents。At present, the employment of the mobile population bet365 Play online games has appeared to transfer from developed areas to hometown，The main reason is not that employment demand in developed regions decreases，but the results of the "gravity" of the county's economic development and the "thrust" common effect of urban migration costs。More complete in transportation infrastructure、The continuous development of rural highways and county bus systems、The attraction and driving of industrial transfer and poverty alleviation project between regions，Some funds accumulated outside、Migrant workers in technical and market channels began to return home，It is of great significance to promote the development of county economic integration。

Fourth is to create good conditions for the rural rejuvenation of rural areas in the system design。On the one hand，System factors that reduce hindrance to the flow of agriculture and rural areas。Deepen the land、Household registration and other system reforms，Supplemented by the common support of financial and financial policies，Obstacles to eliminate capital investment in rural agriculture，Effectively protect the interests of farmers。On the other hand，In terms of income distribution, it should be tilted to rural residents。The subsidy policy of agricultural product price should be continued，Reasonably improve the social security standards of residents in rural areas，Promoting the reform of the income distribution system in the direction in the direction that is beneficial to the income of rural residents。

　(Author Unit: Institute of Quantitative Economics and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)