[Academic China · Economics] Liu Yuanchun: Basically realized the modernization of socialist economy -core parameter calculation and response strategies
October 18, 2021 09:34 Source: "China Social Sciences" October 18, 2021 Total 2267 Author: Liu Yuanchun

  

 Bet365 app download

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Party clarified that it will basically realize the long -view goal of socialist modernization by 2035,Involved countries、Modern Economic System、National governance、Cultural soft power、Ecological environment、Open to the outside world、Resident living standards、Ping An China、Common wealth and other aspects。Through General Secretary Xi Jinping's focus on these goals, it can be seen,First, these target settings have been carefully studied and calculated。From the perspective of economic development capabilities and conditions,Hope of our country's economy、It has the potential to maintain long -term stable development,To the end of the "14th Five -Year Plan" at the end of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan", the current high -income national standard is reached;。Second, considering that there are more factors in the external environment in the future in the future,There are many hidden risks that may impact domestic economic development。Especially the global epidemic influence of the new crown pneumonia,The world economy may continue to be sluggish,So,my country's medium and long -term planning goals should pay more attention to the optimization of economic structure,Guide all aspects to focus bet365 best casino games on the improvement of development quality and benefits。Third, the planning and deployment of the Party Central Committee is based on a large direction、Big Strategy。Although my country is currently in the "14th Five -Year Plan" and the economic development goals by 2035, it is based on qualitative expressions,But it also reflects the quantitative requirements,You can propose the corresponding quantitative target on the basis of careful calculation。So,In terms of economy,Preliminary realization of socialist modernization can be reflected as the realization of several economic development goals。

  The forefront of the world's innovative country

One of the core indicators,It reaches the forefront of the world innovative country by 2035。According to the "Global Innovation Index Report 2019" released by the World Property Organization,Innovation ability index ranks in the top 10 countries,The average level of GDP per capita in 2019 is about 54,000 US dollars,It is more than 5 times the Chinese。According to the "2021 Global Innovation Index Report",,Switzerland ranked first in the 11th consecutive year,Sweden、United States、UK、South Korea is ranked 2nd to 5th respectively; China is 12th,The first place in the middle -income economy,More than Japan、Israel、Canada and other developed economies。If the front of the innovative country is defined as the top 10 countries in the innovation index,This means that China must reach the top 10 levels in terms of R & D intensity,R & D intensity must increase from 2.2%in 2020 to 3.34%in 2035。Calculated according to the unchanged price in 2020,By 2035, China's total R & D scale Bet365 lotto review will reach 7003 billion yuan,This requires the annual growth rate of R & D expenses in the next 15 years to about 8.03%。The average growth rate of my country's R & D expenditure in the past 15 years is 17.7%,Therefore, this speed requirement is not high。

If the total amount and strength of the United States are used as the reference system,The scale of R & D expenditure in my country in 2035 will be 1.83 times the US R & D investment in 2019,The total GDP will reach 206 trillion yuan at the same time,It is 1.02 times the total US economy in 2020 (if the US economic growth rate is calculated at 2.5%,So by 2035, its total economic volume will reach 3 billion US dollars,According to RMB 2020, the price is 20.35 trillion yuan)。So,If according to the US R & D strength,The R & D intensity required for China's total economic volume can be about 2.8%.。But the per capita GDP growth required for this intensity is 4.3%。If you calculate it in this growth rate,By 2025, my country's per capita GDP level will reach about 40%of the top 10 innovative countries。

other,From the perspective of the research and development expenditure structure,my country's expenditure in the development of experimental development has exceeded the United States,But the scale of the expenditure of application research and basic research is only about 45%and 25%in the same period in the United States。where,China's basic research accounts for 5%of all R & D expenditures,The United States is nearly 17%; Chinese application research accounts for 10.8%of all R & D expenditures,The United States is nearly 19.6%。visible,In my country to accelerate the construction of innovative countries,Increase the scale of bet365 Play online games basic research and input intensity,Optimization of R & D expenditure structure is a major problem that urgently needs to be solved。

  The living standards for residents are aligned with middle -developed countries

Two of the core indicators,It is the level of per capita GDP per capita in 2035。First,​​From the perspective of quantity,There are about 70 global high -income countries in 2019,and only 39 developed economies,median numbers can be listed in 35 -bit or 20 -bit。Second,From the perspective of per capita GDP or income level,Per capita GDP threshold for high -income countries in 2019 is about $ 12,400,and the per capita GDP level of the developed economy is the lowest at 20,000 US dollars,The average level is as high as 48,000 US dollars。Remove Luxembourg、Singapore and other small economies of economy after,The per capita GDP level of the developed economy is also around $ 41,000。According to IMF information,The total global economy in 2019 is about 8.66 trillion US dollars。where,The total amount of GDP in developed countries is 51.74 trillion US dollars,accounting for about 60%。The global GDP per capita GDP is about $ 11.46 million,and the per capita GDP per capita in developed countries is as high as $ 48,000,9 times the developing countries,It is also 4.5 times the per capita level of the world。Except for developed countries outside the United States, GDP per capita GDP is about 40,000 US dollars。

If you want to reach the average level of 48,000 US dollars in developed countries announced in the next 15 years,Suppose these countries do not grow,China's per capita GDP needs to increase Bet365 lotto review by 4.36 times,So the average annual growth rate must reach 10.3%; assuming that the average growth rate of developed countries in the future is 2.5%,The average annual growth rate of China in the next 15 years must reach 13.1%。If the median level of 61 high -income countries is the median level, that is, the US $ 28,000 in Spain,Assume that Spain does not grow,So China's per capita GDP in the next 15 years will need to increase by 2.55 times,average annual growth rate of 6.43%。If the average growth rate of Spain in the medium -developed country in Spain is 2.5%,The average annual growth rate of China in the next 15 years must reach 9.09%。If it reaches the level of $ 20,000 in Portugal,Assuming that the average growth rate of Portugal is 2.5%,The average annual Bet365 app download growth rate of China's per capita GDP in the next 15 years will take 6.67%。

Of course,The above estimates did not consider the problem of the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate in China during the high -speed growth process。The average annual appreciation of Germany between 1960 and 1980 reached 5%,China has appreciated in the past 20 years to 1.3%。Suppose the average annual speed of the RMB appreciation is about 2%,So China goes beyond Portugal's per capita GDP growth rate of about 4.7%,It takes 7%to surpass Spain。If the actual per capita GDP growth rate of the actual per capita GDP has remained at a level of 4.8%between 2020 and 2035,Timing at 20%of the threshold value beyond high -income national threshold value as a real span,So,China will complete the historical mission that spans the "secondary income trap" around 2026。According to the calculation of the front low and back -high,2020-2035 The average Bet365 app download growth rate of China's per capita GDP is required to reach 5.5%-6%。but,From the potential GDP growth rate calculated in the current trend,Even under the hypothesis of optimism,China ’s average GDP growth rate of GDP per capita in 2020-2035 can only reach 4.36%,Unable to meet the requirements of 4.8%temporarily。

  Release the new development dividend with a new development pattern

Current,my country is in a critical period of accelerated adjustment period in the world that has not changed in the world for a century.。According to the above calculation,my country's goal setting basically completed economic modernization in 2035,Has highly rational,But this rationality must be based on grasping the new development stage、Implement the new development concept,Constructing a large domestic cycle as the main body、New development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles,Through a series of substantial reforms,A new growth momentum,Accelerate economic development from factor -driven to innovation -driven,Promoting strategic adjustment to thisself、Reconstruction and deepening。First, to promote technological innovation,Start the key core technology tackling battle,Realize new technical dividends。Second, to promote reform,Percery reform throughout the future and all aspects of economic and social development,Realize the second round of institutional dividends。Third, to build a talent for talent、Education Strong Country,Promoting the transformation of demographic dividends into human resources dividends。Fourth, in the context of the world's bet365 Play online games 100 years of change,Actively build a cooperation platform,Shape new competitiveness,Breaking the bottleneck of the value chain and division of labor chain,Relying on building a new open economy system,Realize the new round of global dividends。

Editor in charge: Chen Jing
QR code icon 2.jpg
Key recommendation
The latest article
Graphics
bet365 live casino games

Friendship link: Official website of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences |

Website filing number: Jinggong.com An Bei 11010502030146 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology:

All rights reserved by China Social Sciences Magazine shall not be reprinted and used without permission

General Editor Email: zzszbj@126.com This website contact information: 010-85886809 Address: 11-12, Building 1, Building 1, No. 15, Guanghua Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing: 100026