[Academic China · Sociology] Zhang Yi: China's modernization of medium and long -term development trends
October 18, 2021 09:45 Source: "China Social Sciences" October 18, 2021 Total 2267 Author: Zhang Yi

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Long -term,Modernization of China reflects a strong chase feature。Since 1949,Through continuous industrialization and urbanization development,China has successfully promoted the industrialization process to the middle and late stages,Realized the transformation of agricultural society to industrial society,and strengthen the trend of transformation to the service industry。General Secretary Xi Jinping solemnly announced at the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China: we achieved the first century -old struggle target,A well -off society was fully built on the Chinese land。

China's future modernization construction,On the basis of a well -off society in an all -round way,Promoting the construction of socialist modern countries with high -quality development。In the process of building a well -off society in an all -round way,The basic structure of Chinese society has changed significantly。Future,As long as China's annual GDP growth rate is stable at 5.0%-5.5%,Then China will complete the medium and long -term bet365 Play online games task of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" in a series of stable social transformations。

Population is the basis for modernization。The seventh population census in 2020 shows,China's population has increased to 1.411 billion。China has also gradually entered a slow period of growth from the period of high population growth,and will reach the peak of the population around 2027。This peak population is around 1.423 billion。The variables in it,It mainly depends on the trend of the will of fertility in the next few years。If the willingness to fertility is enhanced,The peak will be higher than this number。If the willingness to fertility will weaken,The peak will be lower than this number。

At the same time,If the trend of population transformation and social transformation can continue,Then China's urbanization rate will be greatly improved。This mainly depends on the influence of two factors。First,The tension of the city is still strong。The greater the intensity of future reform,The higher the basic public service level of the city's open population, the higher the level of the city,The faster the speed of citizenization,The more significant results of the urbanization of the urbanization。2,The mechanization level of the agricultural sector will continue to increase,The commercialization rate of agricultural products will continue to increase,The farming area of ​​a bet365 best casino games single farmer will continue to expand。In this case,The urbanization rate at the end of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" will exceed 70%。This speed is faster than the current main predictions。

After the industrial transition to the middle and late stages,The employment department of China's labor population,will continue from the first industry、Transfer to the third industry in the second industry。At the end of 2019,First Industry、The proportion of employees in the secondary industry and the tertiary industry accounted for 25.1%、27.5%and 47.4%。With the increase in China's labor and human capital、Increases of the gross enrollment rate of university,The scale of China's middle -income group will continue to expand。The proportion of the middle class of China with the main composition of middle -income groups,will increase from the current 25%to 31%in 2025,increased to about 43%in 2035。but the proportion of the number of peasants group,will drop from the current 25%to about 20%in 2025,It is estimated that it will drop to about 10%by 2035。If you only calculate the employment population aged 18-60,The current proportion of farmers' groups is only about 17%。So,A significant trend of changes in the future Chinese social structure,is the stable expansion of the middle -income group and the middle class。Expansion of secondary income groups,It can effectively pull bet365 live casino games China's consumption,Strengthen the reform of the supply side from the demand side,Injecting vitality for economic prosperity。

In the "Fourteenth Five -Year" plan,The goal of 2035 is the level of per capita domestic product reaching the level of medium -developed countries。If the per capita GDP of currently developed countries is determined between $ 20,000 and $ 30,000,The Per capita GDP of China has reached in 2020 (calculated at 6.44%of GDP growth rates) of about $ 11,000。For example,"Fifteenth Five -Year Plan" period reached about 5.5%,"Sixteen Five -Year Plan" period reached about 5.0%,The per capita GDP of 2025 will reach about $ 15,000,2035 will reach about $ 25,600。But if the GDP of the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period reaches 6.0%,"Fifteenth Five -Year Plan" period reached about 5.0%,"Sixteen Five -Year Plan" period reached about 4.5%,The per capita GDP of 2025 will reach about $ 14,800,2035 will reach about $ 23,800。Future,China will increase the reform of the income distribution system,Promoting common prosperity to achieve substantial progress。Under the condition of narrowing the income gap,The living standards of Chinese people will be greatly improved。

Common wealth is a new social form。During the construction of a common wealthy society,It should mainly make up for the shortcomings of rural areas。After entering the new development stage,Main problems encountered by migrant workers,No longer a problem that bet365 Play online games can find a job,Instead of how to improve the income level。This will strengthen the training of migrant workers' human capital and labor skills,Make the "post -80s" migrant workers、"post -90s" migrant workers and "post -00s" migrant workers can steadily increase income level,The steady stream is constantly transformed into a middle -income group。At the same time,It also needs to be created in the creation of labor and employment,With the innovation of high -quality employment as the main goal,Increase through labor productivity、Transformation of the industrial chain,In the combination of artificial intelligence and manpower,Reasonably improves the proportion of one -time and secondary distribution of workers。For farmers,Mechanized investment in the planting and breeding process needs to be strengthened,Expand the per capita planting area,Road to combine traditional small farmers and modern agriculture。In the case where the area of ​​1.8 billion mu of cultivated land is set,Only farmers are reduced,The per capita planting area of ​​farmers can expand,Farmers' income can effectively increase。China as the main problem that China needs to solve as the first population country,It is to ensure the safety of food safety and food。Modernization of rural agriculture,Eventually depending on the modernization of farmers。

bet365 live casino games Another,In the background of population transformation,To achieve a goal of high -quality development,It is necessary to accelerate scientific and technological innovation and institutional innovation。China wants to adapt to the inherent requirements of the industrial revolution,On the one hand, strengthen technology investment,On the other hand, strengthen the popularity of science and technology,Effective from both innovation and science popularization,Also exactly from two aspects: corporate management and social governance,Continue to maintain a great situation of economic growth and social stability。Scientific and technological innovation will inevitably bring the disruptive transformation of the new industry to the old industry,This requires investment in social policy,Solution to resolve the unemployment and reemployment of old industry workers。China needs to open a good game during the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period、Start up,Then complete the medium- and long -term goals of 2035,In order to finally build China into a rich and strong when the 100th anniversary of the founding of the New China、Democratic、Civilization、Harmony、Beautiful socialist modernization power lays a strong foundation。

Editor in charge: Chen Jing
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