Reasonable understanding of China's economic recovery to a good situation
August 15, 2023 10:56 Source: "China Social Sciences", August 15, 2023, Issue 2713, Issue 2713,: Ni Hongfu

In the first half of 2023,Facing the complex and severe international environment and the arduous and heavy domestic reform, development and stability tasks,Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core,my country's market demand is gradually recovered,Production supply continues to increase,Employment price is overall stable,Steady growth of residents' income,Economic operation overall recovers to get better。But there are also insufficient domestic demand、Difficulty in operating some companies、There are many problems such as hidden risks in key areas。Obviously,The economic phenomenon has strong randomness,Economic rules can only be reflected and discovered in the comparison of multi -view angles,Analysis of the macroeconomic situation is also the case。Therefore,It is necessary to reasonably understand China's macroeconomics in the long -term historical background and international comparison perspective。

From the perspective of international comparative perspective,my country's current economic growth is still one of the countries with the highest growth rate in major economies in the world。Complex and change in the international environment、Global inflation high、Under the background of the weakened economic growth of the main economy,It is very difficult to achieve overall economic growth in my country,shows strong economic toughness。In the first quarter of 2023,my country's GDP increases by 4.5%year bet365 best casino games -on -year,Fast 1.8%than the United States、1.0%in the euro area、Japan 1.9%、0.9%of major economies such as South Korea; in the second quarter,my country's GDP increases by 6.3%year -on -year,and the United States is 2.56%,The euro area is 0.6%,South Korea is 0.9%。my country's economic growth still leads the lead in major economies,It has become an important engine and stable force for the growth of world economic growth。

From the perspective of long -term historical trends and international laws,With the increase of per capita GDP,The economic growth rate of various countries will decline。According to the statistics of Payne Table 10.0 data,Per capita GDP reaches $ 10,000、$ 20,000、$ 30,000、$ 40,000、50,000 US dollars and $ 60,000,The average economic growth rate of major countries in the world is about 7.47%, respectively、4.27%、2.83%、2.10%、2.03%and 2.29%。In 2022, my country's per capita GDP is 85698 yuan,Converted by the annual average exchange rate,reached $ 12741,It has remained at $ 12,000 for two consecutive years。2023 In the first half of,my country's economic growth rate is 5.5%,It shows that the overall economic operation is rising to get better。Looking at it specifically,When the per capita GDP reaches $ 20,000 and $ 30,000,GDP growth rates are 6.10%and 5.54%。At this stage, my country's per capita GDP has just exceeded $ 10,000,In the process of developing from 10,000 US dollars to 30,000 US dollars,The level of economic growth at about 6%is completely possible,It is also reasonable,It should be full of confidence。

From the perspective of labor productivity,There is huge development space for my country's economy。Labor productivity is the core indicator of measuring the level of economic development and productivity development Bet365 lotto review of one country。Since the reform and opening up,my country's labor productivity has increased significantly,But from the perspective of international comparative data,my country is not only lagging behind in developed countries for decades,It is not even better than Latin America and Malaysia、Türkiye and other countries。For example,at $ 10,000,Argentina、Chile、Malaysia、Türkiye's labor productivity is US $ 47,200/person、$ 4.89 million/person、$ 54,600/person、$ 71,100/person。And the per capita GDP per capita in my country has just exceeded $ 10,000,Labor productivity is about $ 29,400/person。This indicates,my country in terms of labor productivity and full factor productivity (TFP),There is huge room for improvement and development potential。In the process of promoting the modernization of Chinese -style modernization, we should focus on increasing labor productivity。

From the perspective of the development trend of economic globalization,The world economy enters the "Slow Globalization" stage from "rapid globalization",The era of high -speed growth of export trade will go back,However, China's import and export trade still performs smoothly。In recent years,A series of unpredictable factors formed a major impact on the global economy,The growth rate of world trade has slowed from 2022,and continue to weaken in early 2023。but January to June 2023,The scale of the import and export of goods in my country reached 20.1 trillion yuan,Creating a new high in history,increased by 2.1%year -on -year。From the perspective of historical data,2015-2019 The contribution of the net export of goods and services in my country to economic growth is negative,If each quarter of 2016-2018 is negative。From the international perspective,The proportion bet365 Play online games of net exports in major countries in the world accounted for a low proportion of GDP and most of them are negative (that is, the deficit),If the per capita GDP is $ 20,000 and $ 50,000,The average proportion of net exports accounts for GDP is 1.18%and 0.029%,United States、Japan's net export proportion remains below 5%。Therefore,As long as the import and export trade maintains a growth trend,And the balance of trade revenue and expenditure is within a reasonable range near 0,The contribution of the net export of goods and services to economic growth is even negative,It is also normal。The latest data indicates that the Chinese economy is gradually recovering to be better。

For my country's macroeconomic situation in the short term,First of all, the contribution of consumption to my country's economic growth will continue to increase。In the first half of 2023,The total retail sales of consumer goods in my country increased by 8.2%year -on -year。Catering、Entertainment and other service consumption has risen to rise,The proportion of residents' service consumption expenditures has steadily increased。Where,Catering income increased by 21.4%year -on -year; domestic movie box office income increased by 52.9%,Business performance box office income increased by 6.7 times。Followed by my country ’s investment space wide、Strong toughness and potential。Different regional differences due to objective existence,Traditional infrastructure investment still has a large space,With a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial change,Big Data、Artificial Intelligence、5G and other new infrastructure investment has great potential for investment。But at present,my country's investment growth is relatively stable。Bet365 lotto review According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics,In the first half of 2023,National Fixed Asset Investment (excluding farmers) reached 24311.3 billion yuan,increased by 3.8%year -on -year,Where manufacturing investment、Infrastructure investment increased by 6.0%、7.2%,Obviously faster than all investment。Large project investment support is obvious,Planning total investment of 100 million yuan and above large project investment increased by 10.9%year -on -year,Drive all investment growth of 5.5 percentage points。Industrial investment increased by 8.9%year -on -year,Among them, the investment in fixed assets in manufacturing increased by 6.0%year -on -year。Finally, the competitiveness of exports in my country has steadily improved,Foreign trade Foreign capital steady quality,shows strong international competitiveness and comparative advantages。Industrial upgrade and technological innovation improved China's export competitiveness,Labor costs still have certain advantages,Diversified export market also provides more opportunities for my country。According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs,From January to July 2023, the proportion of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 58.1%,Among them, the export volume of the car reached 2.778 million,increased by 74.1%year -on -year,value 383.73 billion yuan,increase 118.5%,Exit scale jumps in the world's first place。my country has become the world's largest automobile production country、Consumer country and exporter。But my country's export trade also faces some challenges,Full of world economic recovery、External demand contraction、Trade friction Bet365 lotto review and geopolitical conflict will also bring adverse effects。

In short,​​The complete advantage of my country's industrial system is obvious,Super large -scale market advantages outstanding,Significant advantages of human talents,Reform and opening up dividends continue to release,China's economy is stable and good、Long -term good fundamentals have not changed,The elements that support high -quality development have not changed,Toughness Foot、Great potential、The characteristics of wide space have not changed。In overall planning of two domestic and international overall situations,With the support of various policies and measures of overall development and security,China has the ability to achieve stable and healthy development of the economy。We must adhere to Xi Jinping's new era of socialist ideas with Chinese characteristics as a guide,Persist in the total tone of the work of steady progress,Full、Accurate、Comprehensively implement the new development concept,Accelerate the construction of a new development pattern,Comprehensively deepen reform and opening up,Increase macro policy regulation,Efforts to expand domestic demand、boost confidence、Preventing risk,Continuously promoting the continuous improvement of economic operation、endogenous power continuously enhanced、Social expectations continue to improve、Risk hidden dangers continue to resolve,Effectively promote the effective improvement of the economic realization and the reasonable growth of quantity。

  (This article is studying and explaining the Party's 19th Plenary Session of the Sixth Plenary Session of the Party, the National Social Science Foundation of the National Social Science Foundation "Research on the Construction of Bet365 app download an Open Economic System in the New Development Law" (22ZDA063)

(The author is Xi Jinping, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Xi Jinping in the new era of socialist ideology of socialist ideology、Researcher Institute of Economic Research) 

Editor in charge: Cui Bohan
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