The world in today's world has undergone a big change in a century，China's economy has gone through storms and rain，Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core，Get the historical achievements of world -renowned attention，Continuing the two major miracles of economic development and long -term stability of society。2023，China's economic operation shows huge development toughness and potential，On the one hand，We should fully affirm that the economic recovery is rising to a good situation，Keep a fixed force，firm confidence; on the other hand，We should also calmly look at the challenges and pressures facing the current economic development，Keep awake，Ju'an Simy。

　　Fully understand the economic recovery to a good situation

In the first half of 2023，China's economic operation as a whole has risen to a good situation，Market demand gradually recovers，Continuous optimization of economic structure，Employment、Price is overall stable，Promoting high -quality economic development continues to force，shows the huge toughness of economic development，It also reflects the fundamental fundamental fundamental aspect。

First，Economic development is huge。From the perspective of economic growth，GDP China (GDP) in the first half of 2023 was 59303.4 billion yuan，5.5%year -on -year。obviously faster than 3%economic growth in 2022，It is also much higher than the economic growth rate of other major economies around the world。Current，Global economic recovery weak，Lost down pressure，Among them, the growth rate of developed economies is particularly obvious。Weak economic growth in the United States，The stamina is slightly inadequate; the economic growth of European economic growth is "different"，The overall situation is not optimistic。Germany as one of the largest economies in Europe，The second quarter of 2023 fell 0.6%year -on -year，Falling into a technical recession。Based on this，In the "World Economic Situation and Prospects" released by the United bet365 Play online games Nations in May，Relucting China's economic growth in 2023 from 4.8%predicted at the beginning of the year to 5.3%，far higher than the latest expectations of 1.1%of the United States and 0.9%of the European Union。

Second，Continuous optimization of economic structure。First, the continuous increase in innovative investment。In the first half of 2023，Investment of high -tech industries increased by 12.5%year -on -year，Obviously faster than the overall investment growth; investment growth in emerging fields and green fields has grown faster，Clean power investment increased by 40.5%year -on -year。Second is the continuous enhancement of innovation momentum。Modern Information Technology、Artificial Intelligence、Big data and other technologies are widely used，New industries and new products increase obviously，Technology innovation empowerment is continuously enhanced。In the first half of 2023，Aerospace in my country above designated size and equipment manufacturing、The added value of lithium -ion battery manufacturing has increased by more than 20%year -on -year; information transmission、The added value of the software and information technology service industry also achieved double -digit growth。Third, continue to optimize the industrial structure。In the first half of 2023，my country's service industry value added accounted for 56%，The contribution rate of economic growth continues to increase; the industrial structure continues to optimize，Green Transformation、High -quality development steadily advance，Industrial Chain Long、The real economy with high technology content played an important supporting role。

third，Market demand gradually recovers。First, the overall consumption shows a faster recovery situation。In the first half of 2023，The total retail sales of consumer goods in my country increased by 8.2%year -on -year，Consumption growth is returned to the first place from the bottom of the three major needs。Second, the scale of effective investment continues to expand，The key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure is further exerted。Infrastructure and manufacturing investment is still the main driving force，In the first half of 2023，my country's fixed asset investment increased by 3.8%year -on -year，Among Bet365 lotto review them, infrastructure investment、Manufacturing investment increased by 7.2%and 6%, respectively，The contribution rate of investment in fixed assets has steadily increased。Third, export fluctuations are stressful，But the potential toughness is greater，International circulation quality continues to improve。Chinese manufacturing door is complete、Talent dividends and other advantages are still，Basic foreign trade still has the basic supporting effect on economic growth。

Fourth，Employment price is overall stable。First，In the first half of 2023, the national urban survey unemployment rate continued from 5.6%in February to 5.2%in June;，Employment situation overall stability。Actual increase in the per capita disposable income of residents across the country increased by 5.8%，significantly accelerated from the whole year of 2022。Second，Keep the price basically stable，Price is still rising mild，Despite the increase in the increase in the increase in the consumer price index (CPI)，But the amount of currency supply (M2) and social financing growth is relatively fast。With the recovery of the economy，Market demand gradually expands，Coupled with the high base factors of the same period of 2022, gradually eliminate，The price increase will gradually return to reasonable level，China's economy does not exist in risk of currency tightening。

　　Calm analysis challenges and pressures

The current economic situation in China is generally stable and good，But with the new situation at home and abroad and the interwoven superposition of old problems，High -quality economic development still faces severe challenges。Calm、Objective analysis of these challenges or problems，It is important to continue to maintain the economic recovery to a good situation。

First，The motivation of endogenous growth is not strong enough。After the international financial crisis，China's economic growth rate has begun to decline slowly，2008，The economic growth rate decreased from 10.56%to 9.14%。2014-2019 further dropped to 6.84%。It is expected to be during the "14th Five -Year Plan" period，China's average annual growth rate of GDP will remain about 5%。At the same time，The growth rate of the number of labor power has declined significantly，The growth rate of full factor productivity Bet365 app download is declining the overall trend，There is obvious insufficient internal demand、Weaken foreign demand。Special，The United States and other Western countries have strengthened export control and constructing an alliance system，The suppression of Chinese technology companies is continuously upgraded，The external environment facing my country's economic development is becoming increasingly severe and complicated。

Second，Consumption demand boosts are not big enough。Look at it in the short term，The "scar effect" after the new crown epidemic has led residents to "tighten the money bag" tendency，The recovery of durable goods consumption is lagging behind，Consumption confidence is still insufficient。Look at it in the short term，The total retail sales of social consumer goods in the first half of 2023 decreased by 1.1 percentage points from January to May，The year -on -year growth rate of online retail sales of the country decreased by 0.7 percentage points from January to May。Looking at it for a long time，As of 2022, China's final consumption rate is only 53.2%，Far lower than the United States、UK、Germany and other major Western countries，It is also much lower than Japan、South Korea and other Asian countries，Even lower than India、Brazil and other emerging economies。

third，Micro -subject expectations are not stable enough。It is expected to be an important impact force for high -quality economic development。Many signs indicate，Current expectations are not stable，The possibility of continuing to weaken。Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index has been in a decline since February 2023，In April and May, two consecutive months were lower than the critical point; the non -manufacturing business activity index also began to decline month by March，from 58.2%in March to 54.5%。In the first quarter, the consumer expectation index decreased by about 20%year -on -year，March decreased -0.41%month-on-month。Current，Increased international environmental uncertainty factors，It may lead to continuing to continue to become weak。

Fourth，The recovery of the private economy is not enough。The recovery of private enterprises is not strong enough，The number of private enterprises losses in the country continues to increase。As of May 2023，The number of private industrial enterprises incorporated bet365 best casino games into the statistical caliber is 99266，accounting for 28.1%of the total number of private enterprises。Since 2023，The maximum proportion of private enterprises' profits decreased by about 23%。At the same time，Factors that have long -term restricting the development of the private economy gradually increase，If foreign trade export orders have decreased significantly，Pressure to relocate outside the industrial chain supply chain increases，Rising labor costs，Financing costs are high and waited for。

　　More accurate and powerful implementation fiscal policy

Facing the challenges and pressures facing China's economic development，In order to continue to maintain the economic recovery to a good situation，Urgent service，It should be more accurate and powerful to implement fiscal policy。

First，Increase the regulation of fiscal policy，Policy space。China's unique financial system dominated by state -owned capital，Make government debt rates have higher "toughness"。First, rely on the modern fiscal and taxation financial system，Actively expand policy space; second, appropriately increase the level of fiscal deficit rate，Make positive fiscal policies more active，Make stronger counter -cycle adjustment; third is to do a good job of project reserves and layout，Accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds for local governments，Optimize and improve the efficacy of special debt。

Second，Find the direction of allowance，solidly promoting high -quality economic development。Optimized fiscal expenditure structure，Strengthening fiscal and technological innovation、Support in the field of education，Pay attention to human capital investment，Improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system。Properly increase public consumption，steadily improve public service level，Promoting education、Medical、Pension、Nourishing and other fields to make up for shortcomings。At the same time，Continue to increase the central government's transfer payment，Coordinated people's livelihood guarantee funds，The bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level，Re narrowing the difference in tax burden between the industry and regions，Continue to promote equalization of basic public services。

bet365 best casino games third，Expected management of strengthening fiscal policy，Strengthen policy reserves。To guide expectations，Promote confidence，It should comprehensively improve the expected management efficiency of fiscal policy，Introduction and use of fiscal policy guidelines，Introduce and use unconventional fiscal policies that direct management expectations，Rich policy tool box。At the same time，Do a good job of macro policy cross -cyclical adjustment，Strengthen policy goals、Policy space、Policy risk and policy performance cross -periodic review，At the same time, pay attention to more long -term、More stable fiscal policy Guide private enterprises expectations，Promote the confidence of private entrepreneurs。

Fourth，Improve the framework of macroeconomic governance，Increase the aggressive cycle of fiscal policies and cross -periodic adjustment，Maintain policy continuity and credibility; continue、Optimization、Improve and implement tax cuts and other policies for helping enterprises，Let the policy be enjoyed quickly。Comprehensive use of fiscal and monetary policy，Increase the financial support and tax incentives of the technological innovation of private enterprises，Broaden financing channels，Reduce financing costs。The bottom function of improving the social security system，True the role of social security network。Further deepen the reform of the tax system，Improve income distribution pattern，Efforts to expand the size of the middle income group。

Fifth，Build a long -term mechanism for funds for a long -term coordination，Improve the efficiency of financial funds。Discuss the central budget、Local budget、State -owned Capital Business Budget and Social Insurance Fund Budget "Four Budgets" coordinated connection mode，Establish a coordinated mechanism for financial funds for cross -departmental coordination。Innovation evaluation concept，From the past financial evaluation to the effectiveness evaluation，Pay more attention to the public satisfaction of the public。Establishing a sustainable evaluation framework for finance at all levels，Construct a legal system、Comprehensive coverage、Smart and efficient performance index system。Build a full -caliber bet365 Play online games budget review and supervision mechanism，Establish an advanced review mechanism for open budget public review，Improve the "dual monitoring" early warning system for "dual monitoring" for the implementation of budget implementation and performance goals，Reinforcement of budget review and supervision and audit supervision post -to -post supervision system。

Sixth，Effectively prevent and resolve local debt risks。It is necessary to increase the fiscal deficit rate and increase the regulation of fiscal policy，but does not mean that there is no risk。In 2022, my country's local government debt rate reached 551.7%，Has exceeded the internationally recognized 120%warning line。Therefore，Should strengthen government debt management，Formulate and implement a package of local debt solutions as soon as possible，Effectively prevent and resolve government debt risks，Build a fiscal security bottom line。

　　(The author is the president and professor of the Central University of Finance and Economics)