The overall situation of China's economic development: How to see? what to do?
August 16, 2023 09:52 Source: "China Social Sciences", August 16, 2023, No. 2714, author: Jiang Yongmu

In the first half of 2023,China's economic operation as a whole has risen to get better,Market demand gradually recovers,Production supply continues to increase,Employment price is overall stable,Steady growth of residents' income,GDP (GDP) reached 59303.4 billion yuan,increased by 5.5%year -on -year。For this economic development "transcript",Some people think that exceeding expectations,Full affirmation; some people think that lower than expected,Take the opportunity to sing and decline; others think it is difficult to continue,Insufficient confidence。So,How to view the current overall situation of China's economic development,How to grasp the focus of promoting the continuous improvement of economic development,Become an important question worth exploring。

  Objectively treat the overall situation of China's economic development

Economic work has never been abstract、isolated,but specific、Contact。It should be clear,In the current situation of international political and economic overall situation, it is becoming increasingly complicated and severe、Domestic reform and development and stability tasks are in the context of more difficult and heavy tasks,China's economy can achieve such achievements.。Combined data,can start from "three unchanged",Accurately grasp the current overall situation of China's economic development。

First, the economy is stable and good、Long -term good fundamentals have not changed。In the first half of 2023,China's economy gradually gets rid of the impact of the epidemic,Returning to the normalized running orbit,Show a strong recovery to a good situation。Compared to the basic status of economic development in 2022,China's economic development indicators have been further improved。GDP increased by 5.5%year -on -year,significantly higher than the growth rate of 2.5%in the same period of 2022,laid a good foundation for achieving the annual economic and social development goals; total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 8.2%year -on -year,The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 77.2%,Consumption effect on economic growth is significantly enhanced; fixed asset investment increased by 3.8%year -on -year,Among them, infrastructure investment、Bet365 app download Manufacturing investment increased by 7.2%and 6%, respectively,Investment of high -tech industries increased by 12.5%,Effectively played the optimization role of investment in the supply structure。Compared with the overall performance of major world economies in the same period,China's economic development prospect is exciting。In the first quarter of 2023,Inflation and haze in the world is not dispersed、Under the environment of weak recovery of the world economy,United States、Euro Area、Japan、Brazil's GDP increased by 1.8%year -on -year、1%、1.9%、4%,is lower than the growth rate of 4.5%in China during the same period; even if you consider the situation in the second quarter,The growth rate of China's economy in the first half of 2023 is also the fastest among major economies in the world。Based on this,The latest "Global Economic Outlook" report released by the World Bank has lowered its expected growth of the global economy,But forecast that China's economy will increase by 5.6%,1.3 percentage points compared with the forecast of January,Show its confidence in the prospects of China's economic development。

Second is the economic potential foot、Large toughness、Strong vitality、Back Space Space Big、The basic characteristics of many policy tools have not changed。In the first half of 2023,Global Economic Dark Owning Excellence,The road to the recovery and long,Facing rare inflation universal and financial fragility coexistence; but the Chinese economy achieved a good start in the first quarter,Continuing recovery in the second quarter,Showing short -term fluctuations、The potential and toughness of winning the long -term development。On the one hand,The security foundation of China's economic development continues to consolidate。Speed ​​evolution without a large change in the world today,Changes in the era、Changes in the era、History changes are unfolding in an unprecedented way。General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "Safety is the prerequisite for development,Development is a security guarantee。"Since 2023,China continues to persist in the general tone of steady progress,Focusing on food safety、Energy Security、Financial Security、Supply Chain Security and other major issues,Moderate adjustment of macro policies,Make sure food、Energy supply stable,Promoting the healthy and orderly operation of financial capital,Merys of Mounting Employment、Stable business subject,Construction of a national unified market,further Bet365 lotto review consolidating the security basis for long -term economic and social development。On the other hand,The quality of China's economic development has increased significantly。Promoting the effective improvement of the economy and the reasonable growth of the amount,It is a major decision -making deployment made by the 20th National Congress of the Party,It is also a difficult task that must be advanced in the new era and new journey。Since 2023,In the face of demand contraction、Supply shock、The decline in economic downlink with expected weakness,China insists on the theme of high -quality development,Full、Accurate、Comprehensively implement the new development concept,Promoting the continuous enhancement of development kinetic energy、Continuous optimization of the supply and demand structure、The continuous transformation of the development method、Continuous improvement of open level、The continuous improvement of the well -being of people's livelihood。

Third, the multi -faceted advantages and conditions of economic development have not changed。In the first half of 2023,Slowing global economic growth、Financial risks intensify,Especially the entire East Asian region has caused some collapse in the background of the global trade decline., 5.5%economic growth,Fully proves that China's economic development has many advantages and conditions。First,System advantage。Public ownership as the main body、Common development of multiple ownership economies,Display as the main body、Multiple distribution methods coexist,Socialist market economic system and other basic socialist economic systems,Not only reflects the superiority of the socialist system,It is also compatible with the level of social productivity development in the primary stage of socialism in my country,It is the great creation of the party and the people,provided a solid institutional guarantee for the stability of China's economy。Second,Advantages of the industrial system。China has the largest global scale、The most complete manufacturing system of the door category,The scale of the manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world for 13 consecutive years,The driving role of the global industrial economic growth continues to enhance。Such a powerful industrial foundation and supply capacity,will be the integrity of construction、Advanced、The modern industrial system that integrates security provides strong support。third,Market resource advantage。China today Bet365 app download is a population with more than 1.4 billion people、Super 400 million secondary income groups、Economic country with a per capita GDP of more than $ 10,000。The oversized market formed,It can be attracted to all kinds of high -quality element resources,It can also enhance the ability of Chinese companies to participate in global resource allocation,It is China to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern、The key advantage of building a strong national economic circulation system。

  Promoting the continuous focus of economic development

Current,China's economic development trend as a whole,But there is also insufficient vitality in the market、Insufficient consumption confidence、More hidden dangers in the real estate market、Employment situation Strict and complicated problems。So,Promote the continuous development of China's economy,You must adhere to the problem -oriented,Efforts to crack these shortcomings and problems that restrict economic development。

One must build a good business environment,Stimulate the vitality of the market subject。In the first half of 2023,With the normalization of the Chinese economy, the normalization operation,A number of policies continue to show effect,11.365 million new individual industrial and commercial households nationwide,increased by 11.3%year -on -year; market entities reached 177 million households,Continuing the overall expansion situation。At the same time,The impact of the new crown epidemic on the social balance sheet has not been fully repaired,The investment willingness and risk preferences of various market entities need to be increased,There is obvious confidence that is not strong、Insufficient vitality。So,Must build marketization、rule of law、International business environment is placed in important positions,Further stabilize social expectations、Enhance development confidence、Stimulate market vitality,Promoting economic operation continues to rise to improve。On the one hand,Give full play to the leading role of governments at all levels in building a good business environment,Adhere to the principle of combining macro positioning and micro landing,Moderate advancement of systematic、Systematic policy plan,Classification、layered、Expected guidance,Preferential policies should be introduced according to local conditions,Precise assistance to solve actual difficulties,Effective improvement of the quality level of the business environment and the policy of market entities obtaining a sense。Bet365 app download On the other hand,All types of enterprises must consciously assume social responsibility as the main participants of market economic activities,Continuously enhanced its internal vitality,Cultivate and promote entrepreneur spirit,Dare to break in a complex environment、Dare to cast、Dare to bear risk,Actively seeking and grasping new opportunities for development。

Second, we must increase the income level of residents,Promote the consumption confidence of residents。In the first half of 2023,The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are 22758.8 billion yuan,increased by 8.2%year -on -year; the per capita consumption expenditure of residents was 12739 yuan,increased by 8.4%compared to the same period of 2022。Visible,With the stability of China's economy,,Resident consumption confidence is gradually increasing,Consumption Overall shows to a good situation。At the same time, I need to see,Residents' income level and consumption confidence are the two major factors that determine the final consumption level。This requires efforts to increase the income level and consumer confidence of residents,Give full play to the basic role of consumption on economic development,The lasting power to enhance high -quality development。Specifically,We must continue to adopt positive fiscal policies,Continue to improve tax reduction and other incentive measures,Stable Enterprise、Expansion of domestic demand,Activate the market consumer momentum; continuously deepen the reform of the income distribution system,Broadening the income channel of residents,Improving the expectations of residents' income,Improve the tendency to consumption of residents; by promoting the full employment of low and middle -income groups and increased the transfer payment for it,Enhance the consumption capacity and willingness of low- and middle -income groups。At the same time, we must adhere to the implementation of the implementation of the strategy of expanding the domestic demand strategy and deepening the supply -side structural reform.,Continuous increase of high -quality products and services,Enhance the adaptability and flexibility of the supply structure to demand change,Expand new space for consumption with high -quality supply、Create a new consumer scene、Lead new consumption new upgrades。

Third to optimize the macro -control policy,Promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market。In the first half of 2023,China's real estate market faces multiple factors superimposed impact,After Bet365 app download a quarter of the first quarter, the bottom of the bottom fixation,Multiple indicators fell again,presents "weak supply、Demand drops、Inventory increase、Lower price downward pressure "and other features,The urgency of promoting the urgency of real estate soft landing continues to improve。It should be clear,Real estate is the pillar industry of the national economy,The importance of its importance is "3456",That is, the added value of the real estate economy accounts for about 30%of GDP,Real estate -related loans account for nearly 40%of bank credit,Real estate -related income accounts for 50%of local comprehensive financial resources,Housing assets account for about 60%of household assets in urban households。So,Must -optimize the macro -control policy in time,Policy space、Find the direction of allowance,Strengthen reverse cycle regulation and policy reserves,Actively adapt to the "slowing down of total amount、Structural Division of New features,Play a comprehensive policy "combination boxing",Efforts to promote the healthy operation of the real estate market。On the one hand,Under the premise of continuing to insist on "housing and not frying",Optimized housing supply structure due to urban policies,Accelerate the shortcomings of rental housing,Improve living standards、Improve the living environment,better meet the people's rigidity and improved housing needs; on the other hand,We must adhere to the long -term stable housing credit and financial policy,Maintain the reasonable financing support for high -quality housing companies,At the same time, guide commercial banks to provide more stable residential housing credit support,Prevent and resolve the potential credit risk of the real estate market。

Four to strengthen employment priority,Continuous improvement employment situation。In the first half of 2023,The average unemployment rate of urban survey in cities and towns is 5.3%,decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter; 6.78 million new employment in cities and towns,increased by 240,000 people year -on -year。This indicates that with the recovery of the economy,The willingness of workers to enter the labor market to find jobs is continuously enhanced。But you should also see,Stable employment in the current situation、The task of steady growth is still arduous,Especially the structural problems of "difficulty in job hunting" in the youth group are intertwined with the total quantitative problems of "difficulty Bet365 app download in recruitment" in some industries,It has exacerbated the grim and complexity of the employment situation。June 2023,The unemployment rate of labor survey in the country aged 16-24 is 21.3%,0.5 percentage point from May,increased by 2 percentage points from the same period of 2022,At a new high in history,The pressure of subsequent employment may increase。This requires efforts to achieve stable employment target,Expand it with domestic demand、Release market potential、Promoting the reform of the social security system is closely combined,Multiple measures to ensure that the employment situation is generally stable。Specifically,Start with the supply and demand of the labor market,Not only do a good job of employment registration and service work for college graduates,Guide the youth to establish the correct view of labor、Outlook for career、employment view,It is also necessary to formulate a priority policy for employment,Improve industry with strong employment、Enterprise support,Continuously improve the incremental and quality of employment positions。

  (The author is the dean and professor of the School of Economics of Sichuan University) 

Editor in charge: Cui Bohan
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