The prospect of economic recovery of the euro zone is unpredictable
May 29, 2020 08:29 Source: "China Social Sciences", May 29, 2020, No. 1936 Author: Reporter Zhao Yuan

May 26,European Central Bank issued financial stability assessment report (FSR)。Report proposed,European financial department、The existing vulnerability of enterprises and sovereign countries further appear in the epidemic of new crown pneumonia,Policies and measures for epidemic conditions are important to maintain financial stability。

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Report proposed,Although the infection rate of many countries decreases,But the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the market has appeared,and exacerbated the existing vulnerability of the financial stability of the euro zone,Financial stability risk may rise。The financial field is originally facing a series of existing challenges,If the price of assets is high、Investment fund fragility、The sustainability of sovereign debt and corporate debt, and weak bank profitability,This may interact with the challenge caused by the Bet365 lotto review epidemic。The euro zone bank may face major losses and further profit pressure。But the decisive policy reaction helps prevent the financial system from being paralyzed。

Luis de Guindos, deputy governor of the European Central Bank, said,Wide policy and measures to avoid financial collapse,But,The impact of the epidemic on the prospects of banking and medium- and long -term public finance needs to be resolved,to help the financial system support the economic sustainable recovery。

Report proposed,With the spread of the virus in late February,A sharp decline in asset prices in the financial market、Specific increase in volatility、Insufficient liquidity of some core markets。Central banks from all over the world have taken action,Especially the purchase of large -scale assets announced by the European Central Bank will help stabilize the market。All euro zone countries have announced a package of financial plan,The economic impact of alleviating the crisis on family and enterprises。These financial measures help support economic recovery,Especially can provide help for enterprises。Looking forward to the future,The rise in public debt levels may also cause bet365 best casino games market participants to re -evaluate sovereign risks。Although the current capital and liquidity have increased significantly,and the highest point since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,But the bank's valuation drops to a record low,Rising financing costs。This reflects the increase in uncertainty of the economic outlook for the euro zone,also reflects the increase in uncertainty of the profit and asset quality prospects of the euro zone bank。

  Economy faces high uncertainty

Euras economy economy is facing contraction,can be described as the biggest decline in history,and the prospect of recovery is unclear。According to preliminary forecasts,In the first quarter of this year,The actual domestic product of the euro zone decreased by 3.8%year -on -year。The economy of all countries in the euro zone faces high uncertainty in 2020。European Central Bank estimates,As the output decreases sharply,The euro will fall。

In the euro area,The epidemic reduces demand and production,In turn, pressure to the company’s cash flow and household income。The speed of recovery will depend on the ability of governments to relax control measures,and the bet365 Play online games effectiveness of the financial and monetary policy measures implemented。Report prediction,In 2021,But in view of the special nature of the epidemic,This prediction is uncertain。

Eroc Schnabel, a member of the European Central Bank Executive Board of Directors, said,In the short term,The decline in energy prices has greatly suppressed inflation to a large extent。The prospect of inflation in the mid -term is certain。On the one hand,The downlink pressure from consumption and investment is related to the blockade policy and uncertainty caused by the epidemic situation。On the other hand,Globalization is challenged,The chaos of the supply chain may bring up pressure on prices。Future,Europe still needs to continue the road of economic and financial integration,Safe European assets will help integration,Safe European assets will help integration。

  Policy convergence effect will be better

Schunabel thinks,For the euro zone country,There is still a possibility of returning to normal in the future,But you must find a new normal state,And this state has great uncertainty。We can only definitely have substantial structural changes,It has great risks。This may bet365 best casino games be conducive to economic activities to turn some areas with better growth,such as digital or low -carbon economy。But how to use this crisis to promote structural reforms,Still there is still no ready -made、Answers that can be followed。

Recent,Germany and France jointly proposed the "European Revival Plan" of 500 billion euros。Schunabel said,This is a encouraging step in strengthening the direction of European integration。But from the current situation,This is just a temporary measure。but but,This also indicates that Germany is willing to move towards this direction when facing major economic challenges。In the future, it still needs to be deepened by Europe in the future,To cope with impact,Enhanced toughness。

Professor Iain Begg, a professor at the London School of Political Economics, England, said in an interview with this reporter,The "European Revival Plan" of 500 billion euros enables the EU to increase economic support for countries and regions affected by the epidemic。This initiative reflects Germany's economic toughness in Europe、European economic policy convergence and the emphasis on increasing EU economic competitiveness。Bet365 lotto review At the same time,This investment plan also focuses on supporting green transformation、Digital economy and innovation,These issues are also consistent with the issues that the European Union Chairman Ursula Von Der Leyen (Ursula Von der Leyen).。

Schidbeel emphasized,In terms of economy,Policies of EU countries converge,The effect will be better,It is easier to transmit to the entire euro area。From the perspective of economic growth and trade exchanges,The euro area is closely linked。If the economic recovery is unbalance,The overall prospect of the European economy may be even more dim。

Editor in charge: Wang Ning
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