Oil and gas resources are an important material basis for the development of modern society，Play an irreplaceable role in the modern industrial system。In recent years，International oil and gas supply and demand pattern gradually change，Especially since 2018，Affected by new energy of energy，International oil and gas supply and demand pattern is being adjusted in depth，The new pattern is accelerating the formation。

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The academic community of theoretical theory of international relations，Different theoretical genres have discussed the international oil and gas supply and demand pattern。The theoretical genre of traditional international relations，Sovereignty State Government to establish international energy cooperation relations to ensure the country's energy security，countries with strong comprehensive strength are more vulnerable to domestic cooperation、Constitution of transnational behavior。The above view occupies the mainstream in the 20th century international energy theory，It has significant significance to study the direction and change of the study of the international oil and gas supply and demand。

But，March 2018，Minister of Energy Rick Perry proposed the "New Energy Realism" at the 37th Cambridge Energy Week meeting，attracted the attention of the international community。The core point of "Energy New Realism" is to promote technological innovation，Realize American energy independence。Perry emphasized，"From the experience of the past ten years，Technical innovation Let us understand，Realize the use of coal cleaning and utilization globally，Can achieve the development of economy and protect the environment "。US Minister of Interior Ryan Zock said during the meeting that the U.S. government should encourage its own bet365 live casino games energy production，The cycle of reduced energy approval items，Accelerate the approval speed of the oil and gas infrastructure project，Provide convenience for energy production。

Basic content of new realism of energy can be summarized into three aspects: one，It advocates improving the energy supply capacity of the country through technological innovation，Realize energy independence，Reduce dependence on energy imports。Its two，Pay attention to traditional fossil energy，This theory considers future oil、Traditional energy such as natural gas will still dominate the energy structure，The cleaning and utilization of fossil energy should be achieved through technical means，Organic combination of environmental protection and energy development。Three，The government should vigorously support the traditional energy industry，to reduce the project approval process、Provide preferential policies, etc.，Repel the traditional energy industry to rejuvenate，Provide more employment opportunities for the country，Promoting economic development。

　　New changes in the international oil and gas supply and demand pattern

2018 international oil and gas supply and demand pattern shows a variety of changes，Including technological revolution to improve the output of unconventional oil and gas resources in the United States、International oil and gas supply center moves westward、International oil and gas consumption center of gravity move eastward。

The proposal of new energy new realism has changed the US energy supply and demand structure，Digging the potential of the development and utilization of American oil and gas resources，Guarantee US energy security，Promote the United States to develop the energy industry in a more pragmatic way，Added employment opportunities，Then drive the traditional manufacturing industry to develop well。The new realist energy pursued by the United States has also prompted countries to re -examine the country's energy policy，Evaluate Bet365 lotto review coal、Value of traditional energy such as petroleum，Pay attention to technological innovation。

Before the 21st century，Agreement to technical ability，shale gas has not been fully mining and utilization。As the Trump administration encourages technological innovation，Strengthen the development and utilization of traditional oil and gas resources，American Energy Corporation has made progress in the field of oil and gas production technology，Breakthrough of shale gas development technology has made the U.S. unconventional oil and gas output explosive。2018，The United States surpasses Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil producer，It is closely related to the breakthrough of shale gas development and utilization technology。

With the significant increase in oil and gas supply in the United States，In contrast to it，Traditional Petroleum Supply Center, that is, the status and discourse rights of the international oil and gas supply system in the Middle East is weakened。In recent years，American crude oil production continues to increase，According to the latest data of the International Energy Agency, it shows，The average daily crude oil output of the United States in 2018 reached 10.9 million barrels (of which the average daily output of shale oil has exceeded 8 million barrels)，Become the world's largest crude oil producer，Crude oil output accounts for 12.9%of the global total output。Natural gas，According to statistics from the International Energy Agency，The United States maintains the world's largest natural gas production country，2018 natural gas output accounts for 20.2%of the global total output，and the increase in its increase in the next five years will be more than any other country，reaches 2.357 billion cubic meters per day，About 40 % of global output growth share。

After the financial crisis in 2008，Some Western countries are affected to some extent，Slowing economic growth，The demand for oil decreases。Compared with this is，bet365 Play online games Emerging economies are less affected by the economic crisis，The economic growth rate remains high，Oil and gas consumption continues to rise。In recent years，International oil and gas prices continue to fall，greatly reduced the purchase cost of emerging economies of crude oil，enable them to participate in international oil and gas cooperation with a more positive attitude，Drive the International Oil and Gas Consumption Center to the east。

Energy consumption of emerging economies began to recover，2017 increased by 2.2%year -on -year，is 1.6 times the average of the past five years。According to the Forecast of the International Energy Agency，India's dependence on crude oil imports will still increase，，Emerging market countries in Southeast Asia are also gradually rising，It is expected to be 2040，Southeast Asian countries will increase from 4.7 million barrels per day to 6.6 million barrels per day。In the case of insufficient oil supply in China，One after another has strengthened trade contact with the world's major oil suppliers。

　　To be further corrected

Since 2018，Energy new realism has brought a significant impact on global energy governance，But，The limitations it exists makes it needs to be further corrected。

First，Energy new realism emphasizes energy independence，Ignoring international energy cooperation。It advocates，The energy supply of the United States should be achieved through self -sufficiency，International oil cooperation mechanism cannot guarantee US energy security。essentially，Energy new realism presents the basic feature of "adverse globalization"，The United States hopes to ensure energy security through "alone"。But，As scholar Pietro S. Nivola said: "Because the international oil price is affected by various factors in the international market，No country or even regional international organizations can get rid of the influence of the international oil and gas structure "，International bet365 live casino games Relations、The international oil and gas cooperation mechanism still plays an important role。

As the United States gradually realizes its self -sufficiency in energy，The degree of restrictions on the United States for the international oil and gas supply and demand pattern is reduced，The Trump administration has an impact on the international oil and gas pattern with an attitude outside the matter，Back its geopolitical opponent。April 21, 2019，The United States announced since May 2，No longer exempted from the current Iranian crude oil imports in any country，Throughout Iran's crude oil export。With the improvement of oil and gas production capacity in North America， The interests of the OPEC country gradually differentiate，Oil and gas supply centers present a multi -polarization trend，International crude oil prices have shocked，The trend of the international oil and gas supply and demand pattern is still unclear。

After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008，The economic growth rate of developed countries has slowed or even stagnated。Affected by this，Capital atrophy that was originally used in energy investment and infrastructure construction，Energy consumption continues to decrease。Regarding the economy，Attract capital inflow into its own energy market，Developed countries have adjusted energy policies in succession，One of the common features is that the government's participation is generally strengthened，Cause of cooperation with the crude oil supply country。The French government has continuously strengthened with Chad、Congo、Capita and other oil -producing countries' economic and trade contacts，strive to get stable crude oil import sources。Japan、Italy and other countries have continuously strengthened the support of domestic energy companies' foreign investment。This can be seen，International oil and gas cooperation plays an important role in maintaining the energy security of the country，One -sided emphasis on energy independence、The theoretical viewpoint bet365 Play online games of ignoring international oil and gas cooperation is too aggressive。

Next，Energy new realism focuses on the development of traditional fossil energy，The development and utilization of new energy pays attention to lack of attention。It advocates returning to traditional fossil energy，Take into account the development balance of traditional energy and new energy，Reduce carbon emissions of fossil energy through technological innovation，Realize sustainable development。But，Ignoring the broad development potential of new energy，Non -regarding new energy as a key development area for national energy policy。Compared with other countries in the world，Insufficient energy on new energy in the United States has insufficient attention to new energy。

In recent years，The persistent damage caused by traditional fossil energy to the environment，Investment in the field of new energy in various countries has continued to increase，such as combustible ice、Nuclear energy、Solar、Wind energy、Biological Resources、The development and utilization technology of new energy such as water resources has become the focus of research，Investment funding continues to increase，R & D level continues to improve。According to 2018 data, it shows，In the past 10 years，Global Wind Power、nuclear power、Hydropower、The output of photovoltaic power generation has doubled，China's wind power、Hydropower、The output of photovoltaic power generation has ranked first in the world。At the same time，With the continuous innovation of energy production technology，The mining of energy in the world is no longer limited to land and offshore regions that are easy to minimize，Gradually from offshore、The surface extends to the deep sea、Arctic area and crust。Under the influence of new energy of energy in the United States，Too much emphasis on the importance of traditional fossil energy，This is obviously different from the energy development trend of other countries in the world。The Trump administration has applied the new energy bet365 Play online games of energy to its own energy field，Whether future energy new realism has vitality and promotion value，It still needs to be tested。

　　(Author Unit: Department of Foreign Affairs of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China)