Russia's de -US dollar dynamic cause and path analysis
December 31, 2019 09:25 Source: "Journal of Social Sciences", December 31, 2019, Issue 1848 Author: Liu Yanjun Lu Jianxiong Xiao Xingyu

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After the Russian financial crisis in 1998,Scholars have begun to reflect on the high degree of dollars in Russia's economy accumulated in the early stage of rotation。Related research is mainly concentrated in Russia's currency replacement、The degree of asset replacement and the expression form of economic US dollar,Focus on the impact of the US dollarization on the Russian economic and financial system and politics,and consider how to get rid of the US dollar's restraint of the Russian economy from the perspective of promoting the internationalization of rubles。After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,Scholars have begun to analyze the causes and influences of the Russian economy's dollarization,Mainly strengthen financial supervision、Reduce inflation、Promoting how to gradually implement the US dollarization strategy。After the European and American economic sanctions on Russia in 2014,Russia began to accelerate to the US dollar。2018 The United States implements unilateralism and anti -globalization,Wanting to provoke trade friction,Disdoor trade sanctions,Russia began to substantially de -US dollar。Discovery through sorting through academic history,Question of Russian dollar metaphysics,The research perspective should include the cause of the US dollar、Performance forms and the advantages and disadvantages of going to the US dollar、Conditions and possible schemes。

  Russia's inherent needs for the metaphysicalization of the United States

Russian economic dollar began in the 1990s financial liberalization process。The so -called Russian economic dollar,Russian scholars believe that this is the process of the ruble circulation function function replaced by the US dollar,From a broad sense,It is linked to most (or all) functions Bet365 app download that replace the ruble in the dollar。Most scholars measure the Russian economic dollar from two aspects of currency replacement and asset replacement,I believe that Russia in the 1990s was a high -dollar country。The US dollar of the Russian economy in the early stages of the rotation is objective and inevitable,This is mainly a part of the market spontaneous selection of the market。Russian scholars recognize,US dollarization reduces the important position and role of rubles as a local currency,reduced the effectiveness of the Russian monetary policy。The function of improving the circulation and value preservation of the ruble,can we improve Russia's political prestige,The so -called de -US dollar problem causes it。Russian academic circles reflection on the two financial crisis in 1998 and 2008,Promoting Russian scholars actively thinking about the way Russia depends on the US dollar。Some scholars have proposed to use administrative methods to eliminate US dollars; and some scholars have proposed to solve the problem of US dollars.。Dested,After the Russian financial crisis in 1998,Russia is fully open while preparing capital projects,It also began to reduce the degree of domestic US dollar from the perspective。After the global financial crisis in 2008,The Russian government has adopted a combination of anti -crisis policy based on ruble depreciation,Strengthening policy promotion of the internationalization of rubles,Try to get rid of the use of the US dollar's erosion to Russia's economic interests。

Comprehensive consideration of internal and external influencing factors,Russia's de -US dollarization has inherent needs,But external factors have played an important role in promoting the process of Russia's de -US dollar。The editor -in -chief of Russian magazine Andre Frov emphasized,Out of political will,US sanction policy prompts Russia to abandon the US dollar。2014 Ukraine Kramia incident caused European and American sanctions to sanction in Russia,Promote the Russian government to bet365 live casino games start improving the foundation of the local currency and system,Gradually abandon the US dollar by expanding the settlement of the local currency。Trump has provoked a trade war globally from 2018 after coming to power,Using U.S. dollar privileges to monitor and apply financial sanctions on global economic and financial activities,Utilizing the US dollar harvest chain frequently combat relevant national financial and trading systems,exacerbated the world's dissatisfaction and resistance to the US dollar, especially Russia's oil exporting country,,further accelerated the global de -US dollar process。

  Basic strategies for Russia to go to the US dollar

Russia takes measures to de -US dollar measures,Try to settle more foreign currencies in international trade、Weaken the role of the US dollar in various bank reserves、Promoting the attraction of the ruble as the local currency。

The first point is to adjust the structure and settlement of foreign exchange reserves、Payment methods and other practical level Consider Russia's de -US dollar strategy。Russian scholar Yangna Grandeva pointed out,To change the investment tendency,Reduce investment in US Treasury bonds,On behalf of bank deposits or gold investment in other countries。For this,Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, Correcov, said,The Russian central bank is adjusting its international reserve structure,The Russian Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the proportion of the US dollar in the national welfare fund in 2020,Consider adding RMB reserves。At the same time,Some Russian scholars proposed to reduce the settlement of the US dollar,Promote the settlement of currency swaps with local currency areas。A plan for discarding the US dollar,Director of the Institute of Russia's Institute of Globalization Mihaiel Jeatilia Kim once proposed,Russia has a solution to completely abandon the US dollar and abandon the US dollar in the field of foreign trade transactions,It is believed that the former may cause Russia to return bet365 live casino games to the foreign exchange "black market",The latter is more in line with the reality of Russia's current foreign trade。About the plan for promoting ruble settlement,The mainstream view of Russia thinks,Russia must ensure that foreign trade settlement is used in stages,Some scholars believe that one of the important steps of the internationalization strategy of rubles is to promote the settlement of Sino -Russian trade local currency,It is believed that RMB will be an important alternative option for the US dollar,China -Russia's growth potential in the settlement of the local currency settlement is huge。

The second point is to adjust the inside、Foreign policy and direction to implement the Russian de -US dollar strategy,Reduce the influence and control of the US dollar on Russia。On the one hand,In terms of domestic macroeconomic policy adjustment,It is mainly through strengthening financial market supervision,Preventing systemic financial risks,Promoting banking reform。After the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis in 1998,Russian financial regulatory authorities through establishing a deposit insurance system,Strengthening measures such as audit and deleveraging of financial institutions,greatly improved bank credit and ruble credit status,​​strongly promoted the process of deposit and USD。Some scholars believe that since the Western countries have imposed economic sanctions on Russia in 2014,Russia will import replacement as the priority direction of economic development,Adjust the transformation of economic structure with the import and export structure,The role of strengthening investment and consumption on the country's economic stimulation,It can weaken the US dollar's interference to the development of Russia's economic development to a certain extent。On the other hand,In terms of coordination of foreign policy,Russia actively implements geopolitical strategies,On the basis of consolidating the internal economic cooperation of the Eurasian Economic Union,Focus on foreign communication turned to Bet365 lotto review the East,Continuously strengthen cooperation with Asian countries,At the same time, selectively strengthen cooperation with major European countries,Different from European and American policy differences to open Western relations situation,Breaking through the United States' blockade and isolation of the Russian economy。

The third point is to actively establish an independent financial payment settlement system,Promote the reform of the international financial system,Fundamentally changing the system and environment of the existence of the US dollar hegemony。The more realistic practice includes,Selecting some alternatives in the near future to implement local reforms on the international monetary system。Russian Sovereign Fund Director Dmitryev said,Develop a unified payment system under the framework of the BRICS mechanism,It will prevent Russia and other countries avoid risks under the US dollar payment system。Other scholars believe that from accelerating cooperation with the RMB payment system、Help RMB internationalization and other aspects to implement Russia's de -US dollar strategy。Russia needs to join or create some RMB -based related systems。Russian Foreign Trade Bank President Andre Kosjing said,Russia can gradually use China's payment infrastructure to replace SWIFT。

  Economic stable growth is the fundamental to achieve the metaphysics of the United States

Most Russian scholars believe that Russia will continue to go to the US dollar firmly,This not only brings certain benefits to the Russian economy,It also helps reduce the vulnerability of Russia's sanctions on financial sanctions,Especially in the future, avoid the US dollar in energy transaction settlement,It will become the key link of Russia's "going to the US dollar"。Many Russian scholars judge,Russia can switch to including RMB、A variety of liquid currency settlements including the euro,But this process of de -US dollar will not be fast。Russian scholar Nicholas Markyev believes that radical abandoned US dollars will hurt the Russian people。Russian Funam Investment Group Bet365 app download Analyst Dr. Alexeh Bernev believes,The imbalance between Russia's foreign trade is limited to the possibility of transitioning to the local currency in mutual settlement,Besides, the cost of settlement in the US dollar is lower than the settlement of local currency or gold。There are also scholars who point more deeply,Russia's de -US dollarization is just a way to deal with US and European sanctions,Sanctions itself is not the root cause of the deterioration of Russia's economy。Suggestions for taking extreme measures to eliminate US dollars,Not only does it violate Russian financial marketization reform purpose,It will also bring adverse effects on the country's economy。So,Under the situation of continuous expansion of financial globalization and opening up,It is impossible for Russia to completely eliminate the phenomenon of US dollars。

Desting the US dollar is not a simple currency replacement problem,It is a comprehensive political and economic phenomenon。In the short term, it can only be taken as much as possible to eliminate the adverse effects of the US dollar,Long -term economic development,The stable growth and development potential of the Russian country's economy is the fundamental to solve all the problems of de -US mergers。

In short,The contradiction between the current US dollar and the US dollarization,It is a contradiction between the multi -polarization of the economy and the single polarization of the US dollar,A contradiction between the interests of the country as the main body and the lack of financial public products。Whether it is RMB、Euro -Payment Settlement System function improvement,The establishment of a payment system between the BRICS countries,All will become an important supplement to the global financial system。In view of the importance of the US dollar hegemony to the United States,Where will the future Russia's "going to the United States" develop,Will it pose a threat to the global status of the US dollar,Whether Russia and the United States will have serious bet365 best casino games political conflicts around the currency problem,It is worthy of in -depth research and discussion。

  (This article is subject to the opportunity faced by the State Social Science Fund project "The Belt and Road" will face in the next 3-5 years、Risk and Challenge Research "(19VDL002) funding)

(Author Unit: School of International Relations of Sichuan University; School of Economics, Sichuan University; University of Economics of Sichuan University; Russian People's Friendship University)

Editor in charge: Zhang Jing
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