2016，Tobble promotion with the British "Brexit" process，The inherent structure and trend of British and European economic operations are also changing quietly。January 31, 2020 Britain officially separated from the EU for 47 years，This historic turn will promote the transformation of economic operation trajectory to accelerate。In the past few decades，International division of labor is continuously deepened，Global value chain develops rapidly，The multi -country distribution of the network and the added value of the product makes the nature of international trade more complicated。"Brexit" affects the British trade is not just a change in surface numbers，It will also lead to in -depth adjustment of the British global value chain pattern。

　　Bet365 app download

As a member of the EU，British and European trade close。EU not only plays the role of important direct trading partners in the UK，It is also an important intermediary for indirect trade in the UK。From the added value of the added value of Britain and Europe，"Brexit" weakened the advantage of British and European trade，It will lead to the risk of shrinking or even broken by the EU's global value chain。EU is the largest export destination in the UK，According to statistics，British exports to the EU account for about 45%of the total exports of the UK，The value -added export proportion measured from the angle of value chain is also a percentage point higher。The service industry is the most important export department in the UK，Among them, the financial industry with the highest value -added export proportion，dependence on the EU market is higher than the overall level。Not only that，Exit of the UK and the intermediate bet365 Play online games investment in the entire production needs also highly rely on the EU。The value -added from the EU in the export of the British manufacturing industry accounts for about 40 % of all foreign added value; similar data is more prominent in production input，Nearly half of the British production inputs are derived from the EU。

EU, in addition to being an important direct trading partner in the UK，Activities that connect the value chain connecting the UK and other regions of the world。Under the background of global networked production，Other economies other than British and Europe can form a demand for British products and services by importing the EU。As a trade hub，The EU puts the added value from the United Kingdom to inlay the products of the third -party market in the products of the EU countries。The UK's value -added export to the EU's value -added export is nearly 20%of the value -added export to the EU countries and was processed and transferred to other destinations。The UK's indirect value -added exports to the EU and non -neighboring countries such as Switzerland and Turkey，High dependence on the intermediary role of the EU trading hub，For example, the UK's indirect value -added exports of the United Kingdom accounted for about 31%of the total value -added export of Switzerland。Even in the value -added export to China，The dependence on the EU hub also depends on the average level of 20%。From this，The increase in value chain risks of the British "Brexit" caused by the increase in the value of the British "Brexit" caused by the final destination market。

　　The inevitability of the adjustment of the value chain pattern

First，Macro demand Promote external value chain remake。The proportion of British total exports accounts for nearly 30%，It is an important driving force for economic growth。After the 2008 global financial crisis，Back speed of total export and domestic added bet365 live casino games value exports faster than the rebound speed of GDP，take the lead in leading the British economy towards recovery。The huge trade volume between the United Kingdom and the European Union benefits from the trade creation effect and trade transfer effect of the British joining the EU。When "Brexit" raised the trade cost between Britain and Europe，Global value chain is forced to shrink、Fragment，Micro -subject must generate requirements to reshape the external value chain，Consolidate the value chain left、access the new value chain to make up for the loss brought by "Brexit"。Therefore，Whether it is the British macroeconomic development demand or the "stop loss" motivation caused by "Brexit"，All will promote the adjustment of the British global value chain in the "Brexit" era。

2，English and European value chain connection tends to be loose。Since 2008，Britain's dependence on the EU as its export destination has begun to decline significantly，To 2016 "Brexit" referendum，The British export to the EU account for 44%of the total exports，This proportion is far below 53%in 2000。Statistics of the global value chain angle is still the same，About 49%of the British added value export in 2000 flowed to EU countries，In the following 15 years，This ratio is reduced to 44%。It is worth noting that，This drop is still less than the decline in the trade status of Britain in the European Union countries。At the same time，Britain's share in the total exports and value -added exports of the United Kingdom has decreased from 19%to 14%and 11%, respectively.。This trend indicates，At least when the export destination is considered，The United Kingdom has gradually separated from the EU's global value chain center。

third，Value chain structure, which is mainly based on the value -added service value, cannot effectively avoid trade barriers。The service industry is the most important added value export department in the bet365 best casino games UK，70%of the added value export is created by the service department。The above fact seems to strengthen this impression，The export structure of the UK based on service value -added can effectively avoid the impact of the "Brexit" later self -tariff barrier。However, what cannot be ignored is，More than 31%of the value -added export of the service industry is caused by the demand for the export of goods in the UK，The service inlaid in the exit of goods cannot avoid tariff barriers。Even if Britain and Europe can reach a "free trade agreement" to solve the problem of rising tariff costs，The rules caused by the Brexit "Brexit" will also bring new obstacles to British manufacturers，For example, the standard of origin，Not to mention uncertainty of non -tariff barriers。

Fourth，The proportion of high -rebound value in British and European trade will further push the cost of trade。There is a high -gravity of backflow value in British and European trade，EU exports to the United Kingdom from Britain accounted for about 8%of the value -added foreign value -added。Below，EU's return value is much higher in the UK's exports to the EU，More than 40%of the British exports to the EU exports from the EU exports from the EU。The industry with the highest return value in Britain and Europe is usually in a more upstream position in the production process，For example, the wood and products exported to the European Union for example，Back value exceeds 50%。The return value of these embedded products is at least twice through the British and European border，Pay two tariffs，This will further push the trade cost after "Brexit"。

Fifth，British and European "Free Trade Agreement" is not easy to reach。After being officially separated from the European Union，The 11 -month transition period in the UK has reached a future British and European trade agreement with the EU。Analysis from various aspects，The "Free Trade bet365 Play online games Agreement" in Britain and Europe is not easy to reach。The best idea of ​​the UK is to achieve a comprehensive free trade agreement similar to the EU and Canada。But what cannot be ignored is，In terms of trade volume or geographical advantage，Canada cannot compare with the United Kingdom，EU to avoid "unfair competition advantage"，I hope that the trade agreement between the two parties can follow the laws and regulations of the European Union。Besides，Whether it is export or import，EU dependence on Britain is lower than Britain's dependence on the European Union。To prevent other members from imitating the United Kingdom，Form a chain reaction，The EU will also strictly abide by the EU rules to weaken the meaning of the British "Brexit"，The negotiation process of the "Free Trade Agreement" in Britain and Europe is destined to be extremely difficult。

　　New opportunities for the development of the British global value chain

Future，What kind of trade preferential arrangements can the UK and the European Union achieve，Suspense is still a lot，But the rising trend of British and European trade costs almost unavoidable，"Brexit" Britain、EU and other parties have faced new adjustments and balances。Now the emerging economy rises rapidly，formed a new promotion force in global development，The global economic center of gravity "eastward" drives the global value chain center to show the "eastward" trend，The status of Asian countries in the global production network is becoming more and more prominent。From the perspective of development trends，The Global Value Chain Cooperation of the UK is based on the development trend of globalization，Signs of offsetting to Asian countries。From 2000 to 2018，The total trade between the United Kingdom and Asian countries increased by 185%，Exit of Asian countries increased by 223%，The trade with European countries only increased bet365 Play online games by 125%。Trade amount like this，The share of Asian countries on the British global value chain also grows rapidly，Compared to 2000，In 2015, the value -added share of two emerging market countries from China and India increased by 257%。

The British domestic market is extremely limited，Products seriously dependent on export，Urgent need to further expand foreign cooperation to fill the vacancies，Have a good foundation for cooperation with Britain，China, which has a broad market, highlights the value of cooperation。The British financial service industry is very developed，The manufacturing industry is hollow development trend，Infrastructure and backward，The advantages of China and Britain on the global value chain have a strong complementarity。In fact，The British desire for deepening contact with China for a long time，As early as the beginning of the "Belt and Road" initiative in China，Britain expressed the positive attitude different from other Western countries，After Brexit "after Brexit，Starting a new cooperation journey around the “Belt and Road” initiative will also be an important strategic choice between the two countries。With the promotion of the construction of the “Belt and Road”，The Central European trains on the Eurasian Mainland Bridge opened one after another，and extended to London, England，The cost of trade and transportation between China and Britain has been greatly reduced。The two countries further cooperated to have "Tian Shi、Land、People and "people and" opportunities，China should be benchmarking international advanced level，Further improving the level of trade facilitation and deep excavation of industrial complementary advantages，Promoting value chain docking、Maintenance policy policy，Grasp the opportunity to promote the deepening development of Sino -British economic and trade relations。

Bet365 app download (This article is the Studies of the Exchange Rate of the National Social Science Fund project "The Study of the Exchange Rate of the Export Trade with my country" (19bjy189)

(Author Unit: Research Institute of Jiangsu Yangtze River Economic Belt in Nantong University)