Since the reform and opening up,my country has achieved the miracle of economic growth in the world。In the future period,Despite the further promoting economic recovery, it still needs to overcome some difficulties and challenges,But the favorable conditions facing my country's development are stronger than adverse factors,Economic pick -up towards good、Long -term good basic trends have not changed,The foundation for supporting high -quality development of the economy is still solid: a new round of scientific and technological revolution provides strategic opportunities for high -quality development,Deep industrial foundation provides continuous motivation for high -quality development,Super -large -scale markets provide demand traction for high -quality development,Comprehensive guarantee for element provides solid support for high -quality development。From the perspective of production functions,Labor forces、Capital and full factor productivity is the key to determining economic output,Through analysis of the changes in the three can be found,From now to 2035,my country still has greater economic growth potential。
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In the future period,my country has the conditions to give full play to the advantages of the population,Continuous improvement of labor quality,Optimize labor configuration,Gradually transform the number of population dividends into a demographic quality dividend,Injecting endogenous power with high -quality development of high -quality economic development。
First, the size of the working age population is still high,Provide rich labor resources for economic growth。Although my country has developed negative growth since 2022,But the total population is still at the forefront。The scale of the huge population can not only provide rich labor resources,and can create a lot of consumer demand,Forms a large -scale market advantage,Provide broad development space and multiple possibilities for economic growth。From the perspective of total amount,At the end of 2023, my country ’s 16-59 -year -old working age population exceeds 860 million people,More than the sum of the United States, Europe and Japan,The number of youth labor is steadily increased,The labor participation rate is at a high level worldwide。From the perspective of structure,Although China's population aging bet365 Play online games is accelerating,But the elderly for the elderly accounted for higher,Through delay retirement, etc.,Improve the labor participation rate of the elderly for the elderly,It will help relieve the impact of the aging of the population to the supply of labor。In addition,The silver -haired economy that is born of the population aging involves the wide noodles、Industrial Chain Long,It will be developed for the development of a new business、Provide more opportunities for the new mode,It is expected to become a new growth point of China's economy。
Second is the continuous improvement of labor health status and education level,Help the quality of the population quality dividends accelerate。The level of health and education is a concentrated manifestation of labor quality。In terms of health status,Global health status gaps in the world after the new crown epidemic,The main health indicators of some countries decrease,and the health status of Chinese residents continued to improve,The average level of life expectancy of residents is close to developed countries per capita,The status of national health advantages is continuously consolidated。Education level,my country has built the world's largest higher education system,In 2023, the number of college graduates in the country exceeds 10 million,The population who receives higher education exceeds 240 million people,accounted for 17%of the total population; the average education period of the labor age population has exceeded 11 years,The leap of education level has driven my country to shift from human resources power to human capital。At the same time as the population is slightly reduced but the advantage is still there,my country's population quality dividends accelerate,The opportunity window period of the two -dimensional dividend of quantity and quality,It can effectively stimulate economic potential。
Third, the new type of urbanization promotes the distribution of labor space continuous optimization,Create a huge space for improving the efficiency of labor resource allocation。Labor flowing between urban and rural areas and regions can greatly improve the efficiency of labor resource allocation。In 2023,There is still a significant gap with the level of about 80%of the developed countries。Along with the rural population, flowing towards the town、The population of economic underdeveloped regions flows to developed areas,my country's labor space distribution will be significantly optimized,thereby increasing labor participation rate and labor productivity,bet365 live casino games Injecting long -term power into economic development。At the same time,There is still a gap between 17.5 percentage points between the urbanization rate of my country's household registration population and the urbanization rate of permanent population.,In the process of promoting the new urbanization process of promoting people's core,Accelerate the process of citizenization of rural transfer population,It can effectively release the huge domestic demand potential of agricultural transfer population in consumption and public investment,Improve the efficiency of labor resource allocation。
Capital formation still has huge growth space
Current,my country's development is in a new type of industrialization、Informatization、Urbanization、The rapid development stage of agricultural modernization,Transformation in green、Construction of new infrastructure、Urban renewal operations and people's livelihood supplementary shortcomings have huge capital formation potential,Can create a considerable room for improvement for potential economic growth rates。
First, the green development concept reshapes some industrial production models,Create expansion space for capital formation。The proposal of the "double carbon" goal reflects the responsibility of my country that actively assumes the responsibility of global climate change,At the same time, it also reshapes the production method in an unprecedented way,Power generation for landscape、distributed power generation、energy storage、UHV、Smart Grid, etc. bring new development opportunities,Create a huge fixed capital to form a gap。Energy green transformation proposes large -scale demand for expansion of landscape power generation capacity,Misplaining the dislocation of the Chinese landscape power generation resources and the load area will further stimulate distributed photovoltaic、UHV transmission、Electrochemical Energy、The development of related industries such as hydrogen energy storage and smart grids,The growth of these clean energy production and supporting facilities will bring important growth space for capital formation。
Second, the rapid development of the digital economy has spawned new demand for infrastructure,Bringing potential for capital formation。The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China About "Accelerate the Construction of the Network Powerful Power、Digital China "major deployment,Open the new journey of my country's informatization development,Effectively promote 5g、Artificial Intelligence、bet365 live casino games Data Center、Satellite Internet、Industrial Internet、IoT、New infrastructure construction activities in the fields of smart transportation and other fields quickly unfolded。In the first half of 2023,my country's new infrastructure construction investment increased by 16.2%year -on -year,far higher than the growth rate of investment in the construction of traditional infrastructure。At the same time,Based on the relevant research institutions estimate,my country's future new infrastructure construction activities will continue to expand,The proportion of investment in infrastructure will gradually increase to about 15%-20%,It indicates that the construction of new infrastructure is becoming a new demand point in the national economic cycle。These areas have obvious heavy asset characteristics,will bring huge growth potential to fixed capital formation。
Third, the people's yearning for a better life inspire cities to update operations,Make a major demand for capital formation。Implementation of urban renewal operations,It is an important decision deployment made by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Party。Urban update includes the "city village" transformation、Urban Underground Pipe Network Construction and the promotion of urbanization construction with county seats as an important carrier。With my country's urbanization gradually shifted from high -speed development to high -quality development,Urban update will stimulate production vitality、Promoting capital formation and other aspects to play an important role。According to many institutions forecast,This round is oversized、"Chengzhong Village" in a large city to be transformed or over 1.3 billion square meters,It will drive nearly trillion -level investment every year。At the same time,Urban Underground Pipe Network Construction is the "Lizi" project of the city,Great investment potential、Features of strong driving ability。Future,my country will transform an underground pipeline of more than 100,000 kilometers per year。Update demand for these cities will effectively drive upstream and downstream industrial production activities,Perfectly promoting capital formation。
Fourth, the demand in the field of people's livelihood is continuously expanded to promote the transformation and upgrade of the service industry,Bring a vast blue ocean for capital formation。The service industry is not only the "cockpit stone" of the national economy,It is also a "booster" for promoting the transformation and bet365 live casino games upgrading of traditional industries,Still promoting the new economy、"Incubator" that accelerates growth of new kinetic energy,There is a lot of room for growth。With the power of education、Science and technology power、The construction of a talent for the power of the country is accelerated,my country's needs in education and technology services will continue to grow,At the same time, drive the relevant upstream and downstream industries to actively deploy the future,Accelerate capital formation。In addition,To cope with the development trend of the aging of the population,Pension service is becoming a new demand hotspot,For different types of pension venues、Long -term demand for aging facilities and equipment will effectively drive capital formation。In the context of continuous emergence of capital formation demand in many service areas,If various policies and measures that promote the service industry to open to the outside world can accelerate the landing,will be further conducive to capital formation,Effectively increase the potential economic growth rate。
Full factor productivity has the potential to remain at a high level
my country's economy has shifted from a high -speed growth stage to a high -quality development stage,The "intensive growth" brought by the increase of bet365 live casino games the productivity of the whole factor is becoming more and more important。Around deepening reform、Expansion open、Encourage innovation and other aspects to formulate a series of policy measures,will help stimulate market vitality,Improve the level of full factor productivity,Release the potential of economic growth。
The first is to promote the market -oriented reform of factor、Optimized resource allocation。early 2022,The General Office of the State Council issued the "General Plan for the Pilot Pilot of Comprehensive Reform of the Factors",Surrounded by land、Labor forces、Capital、Technology、Data and other production factors launched targeted reform measures。The advantages of data resources in our country are significant、The number of labor force is still high、In the case of accelerating the growth of high -level talents,By promoting the construction of data infrastructure,Establish and improve public data sharing and data circulation trading rules,Reform of the implementation of higher education disciplines,Enhance the matching degree of human capital and job demand,Unblocked labor and talent social flow channels, etc.,will help optimize all kinds of factors resource allocation,Significantly increase bet365 live casino games the productivity of the unit's element resource,Promote the continuous improvement of the productivity of the whole factor。
Second is to accelerate the transformation of service -oriented government、There is a great way to achieve the balance of supply and demand。Current,my country faces excess production in some industries、Investment in traditional fields is limited and other issues。Accelerate the construction of service -oriented governments,Optimized adjustment of fiscal expenditure,Increase the subsidy of financial funds to residents' income,It will help strengthen the consumption power of residents,A balance of supply demand。Specifically,By steadily promoting the reform of the social security system,Significantly improves the level of social security at low income group,Accelerate the reform of the household registration system,Increase education、Medical、Investment in the people's livelihood and other people's livelihood,Take a series of measures such as basic public services and the hook of permanent population,will help promote domestic consumption,Expand effective requirements,Unblocked Domestic Cycle,Realize the reasonable allocation of resources,Improve the full factor productivity。
Third is to expand the service industry to open inside、Great potential in stimulating market vitality。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,my country expand open platforms such as the establishment of a free trade zone and the service industry to expand open comprehensive pilot cities,Continue to deepen the service field to open to the public。But compared to developed economies,At this stage, my country is in finance、Telecom、Education、Medical and other fields are still low。Through comprehensive implementation of the negative list management system,Relax market access standards,Promoting measures such as high -level system openness,It will help attract more private capital and foreign capital to invest in the domestic service industry,Especially the productive service industry with high value -added,to stimulate the vitality of the service industry market,Promoting the upgrade and transformation of the service industry,Improve the full factor productivity。
Fourth is to adhere to the innovation -driven development strategy、Accelerate the formation of new productive for new productivity。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,my country insists on implementing innovation -driven development strategies,The national comprehensive innovation ability continues Bet365 lotto review to improve。2023,China ranks 12th among the world's most innovative countries,and communicate in quantum、High Speed Rail、Photovoltaic、Drone and other fields entered the world's leading ranks。my country is implementing the strategy of rejuvenating the country in depth、Talent Strategy、Innovation -driven development strategy,Through deepening the reform of the science and technology and education system,Improve the scientific and technological innovation system,Strengthen national strategic technology forces,Strengthen the deep integration of industry -university -research led by enterprises,Implementing education、Technology、Talent Coordinated Development,Effectively transformed the results of technological innovation into new productive forces,Promoting technological progress,Cultivate a new business and new kinetic energy that promotes economic growth。
(This article is the "complete、Accurate、Research on New Development Concepts "(2023yzd017) phased results)
(The author is the director、Researcher)
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