Expansion of internal need to invest and consume together

Since the late 1990s，my country has always attached importance to the important role of domestic demand in economic growth。The reform and opening up launched in 1978 greatly improved China's scientific and technological level and productivity level，continued to improve the potential supply capacity and economic growth rate of China's economy，At the same time, it has greatly expanded the domestic market space and demand scale。But in the process of continuous integration of the economy，Especially the ever -changing situation of the domestic and international economic development situation，Insufficient internal demand has gradually become one of the normal conditions of China's economy since 1998。From the perspective of practice，The more loose the international market environment, the more loose，The higher the degree of supply and demand in my country，The smoother economic development。Since 1998，Active fiscal policy with the goal of expanding domestic demand，Become an important policy tool for my country to deal with the contradiction between the total supply and total demand，This is not uncommon in previous economic practice。Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China，Facing the overall change of the world's century -old changes and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation，great changes in the domestic and international environment，On the one hand, the international market space and scale contraction，On the other hand, in order to better satisfy the people's growing material culture needs and economic security，my country's unified market in China is growing and growing。Speed ​​up the construction of a large domestic cycle as the bet365 best casino games main body、New development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles，It is an important strategic task for the new development stage to promote the modernization of Chinese -style modernization。

Domestic demand consists of two parts: investment and consumption，Expansion of domestic demand requires investment and consumption together。From the perspective of investment，Since 2012，Private investment accounts for the proportion of fixed asset investment in the whole society.，Public investment accounts for 80%of the manufacturing investment，Civil investment is the main force of fixed asset investment.，It shows that the potential of my country's civil investment has long -term existence，and have a solid economic foundation。The growth of fixed asset investment in the first half of 2023 is mainly contributed by state -owned investment，The main reason for investing in this carriage growth rate is the lowest reason is that private investment downturn，Therefore, expanding investment needs to increase efforts to stabilize the investment confidence of private entrepreneurs，Promoting the recovery of the popularity of private investment。Look at this carriage again。The final consumption in China's statistical caliber is divided into government consumption and residential consumption。Since 2008，Government consumption and residential consumption have always been opened in the final consumption，That is, government consumption accounts for 30%of the final consumption，Resident consumption accounts for 70%up and down。Resident consumption is a big head in consumer demand，It is also the most vulnerable to market change or economic fluctuations。6 months before 2023，The per capita consumption of residents across the country increased by 7.6%，6.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year，But the reality that needs to be recognized is，The current consumption growth of residents in my country still has not returned to the growth rate of 2019 before the epidemic，The potential for consumption growth of residents needs to be further released。

Although the prominent problem currently facing China's economy is insufficient domestic demand，But supply and demand are interdependent and interactive。The equilibrium value of micro and macroeconomic variables is determined by the balanced supply and demand。organically combined the implementation of the strategy of expanding the domestic demand and deepening the supply -side structural reform，On the one hand，Promoting supply -side structural reforms must be relying on demand，Based on moderate expansion of demand。Demolition from demand，Supply -side structural reform will lose direction、Lost target。On the other hand，Expansion of domestic demand is inseparable from supply -side structural reform。The last period of the last period，The Party Central Committee and the State Council further increased the policy strength of expanding domestic demand，Constantly introduce new policy measures，Pay attention to the policy portfolio。From the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in July 2018, "Six Stability" (Stable Bet365 lotto review Employment、Stable Finance、Stable Foreign Trade、Stable foreign capital、Investment、Stable expectations)，By April 2020, the Central Political Bureau meeting proposed "Six Insurance" (employment of residents、Basic people's livelihood、Anthology of the market、Food and Energy Security、The supply chain of the industry chain is stable、operation of the sponsor layer); From December 2021, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that my country's economic development is facing demand contraction、Supply shock、Expectation to weaker triple pressure，By July 24, 2023, the Economic Work Conference of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposes to "expand domestic demand、Promote confidence、Prevent risk，Continuously promoting economic operation to continue to improve、endogenous power continuously enhanced、Social expectations continue to improve、Risk hidden dangers continue to resolve，Promoting the effective improvement of the economy and the reasonable growth of the amount "，All are designed to increase policy strength、Promoting confidence and stable expectations to promote consumption and investment growth，Accelerate the rise of the economy。

　　Expansion needs to focus on stable expectations

Whether it is an enterprise investment or resident consumption，First determine the expectations and confidence of investors and consumers。"Many areas in economic life，Especially areas involving investment and financial decision -making，Expectation is the key to making decisions。It affects the investment scale of investors，It also affects consumers' current expenditures or decisions (for the future) savings。"(Paul Samuelson、William Nordhos，Xiao Chen's main translation，"Economics", 19th edition，Business Press 2013 Edition) The so -called expectation，refers、macroeconomic trend、Estimation and judgment of variables such as investment returns or income growth in the future。Are these estimates and judgments optimistic or not optimistic，Whether the future market conditions and income changes are optimistic or not optimistic，Determine his or her current investment or consumption willingness and enthusiasm。And the good or difference between the good or bad of the economic parties mainly determines the social environment (including the institutional environment and policy orientation) and the macroeconomic trend。This is why we repeatedly emphasize "guidance expectations", "management expectations", "expected weakness", "steady expectations" and "improvement"。

Enterprise investment is to obtain profit and enterprise development，Therefore, its main decisive factor is the expected return on investment，The expected income after the investment cost of the enterprise's income deduction。Corporate income comes from the sales volume and sales price of its products and services，The important factor affecting the sales volume and sales price of enterprises is the macroeconomic status，For example, GDP growth speed and market demand status。This indicates that enterprise investment depends on the income that macroeconomic activities may generate。If the company's production capacity is idle and (or) the inventory bet365 best casino games exceeds normal or the level of intention，The company has no willingness to increase investment。Economists discovered，Investment and economic cycle is closely related，Increase or decrease in investment is generally a periodic。In addition to the large -scale fixed asset investment of the initial need of the new project，The cost of considering investment in enterprise investment also includes the cost of production factors used in daily business activities、Financing cost，and tax costs paid in accordance with laws and regulations。What needs to be noticed is，Enterprise investment must not only consider the accounting costs visible to these financial statements，It is also necessary to consider the institutional cost consumed by investment activities and production and operation activities，That is the transaction fee mentioned in the new institutional economics。The cost of the system will undoubtedly crack down on the enthusiasm of investment。Investment needs to recover costs and obtain net income requires a long or short cycle，It is full of risks and uncertainty，So，Investors' expectations for future market conditions and profits and confidence in enterprises，All are very important factors that determine investment。

The decisive factor in consumer demand for residents is mainly personal existing，and the total revenue and wealth that can be expected in the future，Including current disposable income、Expected future income，and unemployment、Social Security (Actually Life Insurance), etc., etc.。The cost of educating children、The cost of the elderly、Medical service expenditure is also the three important factors affecting the consumption of Chinese residents，Excessive costs will also affect consumer confidence。Modern Economics Discovery，The consumption tendency of consumers of different income strata is different，Border consumption tendency gradually decreases as the income level increases，So，The gap between income distribution is also an important factor affecting the consumer demand of residents in the whole society。Promoting the consumption demand of residents is to ensure employment to obtain current disposable income，Stable residents for education、Expenditure of medical and old -age care，In particular, it is necessary to reasonably guarantee the right to share the results of economic and social development in ordinary workers，Reduce the income gap between residents，Make residents have the ability to consume，At the same time, there are enthusiastic consumption。

You can see，The policy implementation in recent years has played a great role in stabilizing the economy and society，Get a series of obvious results。But at the same time, you should also see，Economic recovery and improvement have not reached the results of people's expectations。The material foundation of the material basis for comprehensively building a comprehensive construction of a socialist modern country with high quality，Promoting social expectations and economic development virtuous cycles，Promote the effective improvement of the economy and the reasonable growth of quantity，bet365 live casino games You need to further increase the intensity of reform and opening up，At the same time, a package of macroeconomic policy stimulus，Collaborative with reform and policy，Promoting expansion internal demand to promote growth。

　Adhere to reform and policy coordinated advance

China's economy has lasted for more than 40 years since 1978，Upgraded to the world's second largest economy，mainly benefited from reform and opening up。1992，China has established the reform goals of establishing a socialist market economy system，This major system reform has made the Chinese economy winning the miracle period of more than 9%of the annual growth rate of more than 20 years，In the same period, residents' consumption and corporate investment are driving together、high -speed growth。It can be said，The changes brought about by reform and opening up are long -term，The role is global，The effect is lasting。Tell us the facts，On the perspective of expanding domestic demand and promoting growth，Reform is more important than policy，The role of reform and opening up is significantly greater than、Short -term policy stronger than expanding domestic demand。Of course，Reform and opening up and policy are inseparable -the goal of reform and opening up needs to be achieved through many policy measures，Many policies and measures are also associated with reform and opening up。Because of this，The author proposes "Reform and Policy Cooperation Promotion"。Through deepening reforms and high levels of opening to the public，Show better development prospects、larger development space、More loose development environment，This can boost the confidence of the market entity，Improve and stabilize people's expectations。Do the economic work in the second half of the year，To "comprehensively deepen reform and opening up，Increase macro policy regulation "，It shows that the central government has decided to resolve insufficient domestic demand through reform and policy coordination and efforts，Promoting economic recovery and improvement，instead of just relying on the single leverage of policy。

First，Promoting the reform of the economic system solidly，Stimulate private investment vitality。July 24，The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized "to continue to deepen reform and opening up，Persist in ‘two unwavering’，Effectively improve the core competitiveness of state -owned enterprises，Effectively optimize the development environment of private enterprises "。The key to the implementation of "two unshakables" to the implementation is to put state -owned enterprises and private enterprises in the same important position。Since the 21st century，The Party Central Committee and the State Council have issued 4 articles in total of 131 documents about supporting and promoting the development of the private economy，"Two unshakable" is consistent。The 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has further proposed that "insist on equal protection of objective rights，Forms a variety of ownership economy equal competition、Promote the new pattern of mutual promotion "。The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is emphasizing "two unshakables"，Further bet365 live casino games propose "ensure that various ownership economies use production factors equally according to law、Fair participation in market competition、Also protected by law "。This will make a variety of ownership forms、Multiple economic ingredient coexistence and common development from the level of policy regulations to the level of the legal system。The "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several major issues on comprehensive deepening reforms" adopted by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Party "、The common development of multiple ownership economies "is determined to be China's basic economic system，For the first time, the non -public ownership economy and the public ownership economy are in the same important position.，Emphasize that "public ownership economy and non -public ownership economy are important part of the socialist market economy，All are an important foundation for my country's economic and social development "。Recent，"Opinions of the State Council of the Communist Party of China on Promoting the Development of the Private Economy" clearly put forward，The private economy is the promotion of Chinese -style modernization forces，It is an important foundation for high -quality development。

Second，Coordinated market -based reform and government reform，organically combined the implementation of the strategy of expanding the domestic demand and deepening the supply -side structural reform。The biggest advantage of the market economy is the free choice of respect for market entities、Autonomous decision，Form an effective incentive mechanism on the basis of property protection，so as to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the market entity，Give full play to personal potential，Really realize what you can，Micro foundation for consolidating the motivation of economic development。Reduce too much at the same time、Unnecessary government intervention，Democraticization of government decisions and actions through system reform、Science and rule of law。Really implemented "the market played a decisive role in the allocation of resources，better play the government role "。To expand domestic demand, we must deepen the supply -side structural reform，Due to the scale of demand and its growth、Demand structure changes in the final analysis are determined by institutional system factors。Deepen reform of those institutional mechanisms that hinder demand structure optimization and demand growth are the meaning of supply -side structural reforms。​​Because of this，July 24，The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes "organically combining the implementation of the implementation of the strategy of expanding the domestic demand and deepening supply -side structural reforms"。

third，Promoting the reform of urban and rural integration，Active capital market and real estate market。The largest market space in China in the new era is in rural areas。and town、Compared with the development of industry and national defense，my country's agricultural and rural development is relatively lagging，This shows the largest space of expanding domestic demand from another angle、The biggest potential in agriculture and rural areas。Modernization of agriculture and rural areas、The construction of agricultural power requires a lot of infrastructure，bet365 Play online games Agricultural Industrialization、Construction of supply chain of emerging industry chain，Adjustment of agricultural economic structure and technical upgrade，Agricultural and Rural Innovation、Entrepreneurs，Farmers improve their housing and living environment，All need a lot of investment and fund support。In 2022, the per capita income and per capita consumption of rural residents were 41%and 55%of urban residents, respectively.，Visible，There is a lot of investment space and consumption potential in agriculture and rural areas，Promoting the reform of urban and rural integration and the development of urban and rural integration，Build a national unified large market，Form complete、Unblocked economic internal circulation system，It will release large -scale domestic demand potential，Effective relief of insufficient contradictions。The capital market is a market connecting to investment and consumption，It is also a market that connects internal and external cycles，still directly affects investors、Consumer confidence and expected market。The real estate market is a market related to more than 40 industries，Its rising and declining status affects the development process of upstream and downstream industries。Expand domestic demand，Promoting the steady economic recovery，You need to activate these two markets through reform and policy adjustment。

　　(The author is a researcher at the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China、Professor of the School of Economics)