"bet365 score" (bet365 score，Also known as "bet365 score")，Refers to when facing equal losses and gains，People feel the pain of losses more intensely than the pleasure of gains，Therefore, we tend to avoid losses rather than strive for gains。This concept originates from the 1979 book "Prospect Theory: Analysis of Decision Making under Risk" published by Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky，Afterwards，It became one of the most influential concepts in behavioral science，Widely used in investment、Insurance and other fields。Kahneman and Tversky also in their 1992 paper "Prospecting Theoretical Progress: Cumulative Representations of Uncertainty"，Quantitative analysis of the ratio between the pain caused by losses and the pleasure brought by gains - the former is at least 2 times the latter。In recent years，Many scientists have begun to question the explanatory power and scope of application of "bet365 score"，And conducted a series of studies to test whether "bet365 score" is really an "iron law"。

　　“bet365 score” has made great contributions to behavioral science

Kahneman and Tversky’s 1979 study examined why symmetric bets (50% probability of loss and 50% probability of gain) are unattractive to most people，Although the study does not clearly define “bet365 score”，But one of the words "losses loom larger than gains" is widely circulated。1980s and 1990s，Two scholars explore “bet365 score” in further research，And this explains the endowment effect。

The endowment effect means that when people own an item，The value given to the item has increased compared to when it was not owned。The relevant classic example is Kahneman and the American economist Richard Thaler、Canadian behavioral economist Jack L. Jack L. Knetsch) conducted a set of experiments in 1990，Participants are all college students。Researchers gave half bet365 score participants coffee mugs emblazoned with their school’s commemorative logo (on sale at the school store for )，And ask them to price their cups，At the same time, ask participants who do not have a coffee cup to determine how much they are willing to spend to buy a classmate’s coffee cup。Result display，"Seller"'s average list price is over ，The "buyer" bid is only 2.Around 。Subsequently，Researchers reversed “sellers” and “buyers”，Replace the coffee cup with a ballpoint pen，Repeated the above experiment and got the same results。

Kahneman believes，The endowment effect is a manifestation of "bet365 score"-the disutility of losing something is greater than the utility of gaining it。The "coffee cup experiment" and other similar studies gave "bet365 score" axiomatic status in the emerging field of behavioral science。2002，Kahneman “combines psychological research with economic research，Awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences "especially for research on human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty" (sharing the award with American economist Vernon Lomax Smith)。Introducing the winner，He said: “I believe the concept of ‘bet365 score’ is our (myself and Tversky’s) most useful contribution to the study of decision-making，The asymmetry between gains and losses unlocks many puzzles，Including the distinction people make between opportunity costs and ‘real’ losses。" in the book "Thinking published in 2011，Fast and Slow》中，Kahneman also mentioned，The concept of "bet365 score" is undoubtedly psychology's most important contribution to behavioral economics。

January 2021，Colin F, professor of behavioral economics at California Institute of Technology, USA. Kemmer (Colin F. Camerer) and others published a research paper "A meta-analysis on the empirical estimation of bet365 score"。Through Analytical Economics、Psychology、607 empirical estimates of “bet365 score” in a total of 150 papers in neuroscience and other disciplines，They found out，On average，People give losses a significantly higher weight than gains in their decisions。Professor of Columbia University Business School、Eric J. Director, Center for Decision Sciences. Eric J. Johnson) talked about，There may be other explanations for any given case including the endowment effect，But "bet365 score" provides the simplest explanation for a variety of cases。Otherwise，People can only get a variety of partial explanations。

　“bet365 score” faces many challenges

Not all scholars firmly believe in “bet365 score”。David Gal, professor of the Department of Marketing at the University of Illinois at Chicago, is a representative figure who is critical of behavioral economics, especially "bet365 score"。2003，When Gal was a graduate student in the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University，He redid the “coffee cup experiment” and confirmed it，People who own the cup assign a higher value to the cup than those who don’t。But，Gar noticed，Most of the experiment participants didn’t seem to care about the whole thing。Therefore，He started thinking，Whether participants are reluctant to sell or buy cups easily mainly out of inertia，Rather than having any strong feelings about losing or owning a coffee mug。

　2018，Gall and Derek D, professor of marketing at Northwestern University. Derek D. Rucker) cooperation，Carrying out the "coffee cup experiment" again。However，They changed one condition: tell the owner of the coffee cup，Their cups will be taken away，And ask them how much they would pay to keep the cup，Instead of asking what price they are willing to sell the mug for。If "bet365 score" really exists，Then the amount that a participant who owns a coffee cup is willing to pay to keep the cup，Should be higher than the amount a participant without a coffee cup would be willing to pay for a cup。However，The fact is: all participants assigned a similar value to the cup。

The paper "Endowment Effect: bet365 score or Buy-Sell Difference published in January 2021？》中，Wendy Liu, associate professor of marketing at the University of California, San Diego, and others used the same ideas as Gal and Luck to conduct experiments，That is, testing how much the owner of an item is willing to pay to keep the item。This study found no evidence that “bet365 score” can explain the endowment effect，It was discovered that the endowment effect is related to buy-sell discrepancy，That is, people determine the price of items in a strategic way。Wendy Liu said: “From the evidence we have obtained，‘bet365 score’ may not be a sufficient explanation of the endowment effect，Researchers should stop equating the two。”

Ido Erev, professor at the School of Industrial Engineering and Management at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, and Eyal Ert, associate professor at the Department of Environmental Economics and Management at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, in 2013 According to the article "On the Descriptive Value of bet365 score in Risk Decision-Making: Six Clarifications" published in 2017，In some but not all cases，Loss is more prominent than gain。Article proposed，Six experimental manipulations tend to increase the probability of “bet365 score”: Designing safe options as status quo；Ensure loss-averse choices maximize the probability of a positive outcome；Use high numerical rewards；Use Big Bet；Add a very attractive risk profile，To create a contrasting effect；Use without feedback、A long-term experiment whose expected value is difficult to calculate。

Eldad Yechiam, a professor at the School of Industrial Engineering and Management at the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, is also skeptical about the persuasiveness of the concept of “bet365 score”。He thinks，When Kahneman and Tversky proposed "Prospect Theory" (also known as "Prospect Theory") in 1979，Mainly hoping to use the theory to criticize expected utility function theory - they note，The choices people make under the prospect of risk exhibit some characteristics that are inconsistent with the basic principles of utility theory。By examining early research on utility functions for gains and losses and the initial evidence for “bet365 score” proposed by Kahneman and Tversky，Yeshiam thinks，Proponents of “bet365 score” overinterpret the above research。These studies show，Very large losses will be taken seriously，Smaller losses often don’t get much attention。

In the eyes of the “bet365 score” skeptics，Many phenomena attributed to “bet365 score”，There are other explanations, at least in theory，As inertia “overwhelms” the tendency to act。Gall talks about，After the publication of his research results in collaboration with Lark，Many colleagues sent him emails，Indicated that it mistakenly attributed certain phenomena to “bet365 score” in previous research；There are also scientific researchers who have said that they have been looking for evidence of “bet365 score” for many years，But never found。But，Peer reviewers are often hostile to research that denies “bet365 score”，This has led to many journals being reluctant to publish these research results。Therefore，Gall uses "blur、Loosely” to describe the definition of “bet365 score”。2018，Gall published an article "Why the most important concept in behavioral decision-making research is a fallacy" on the official website of the American popular science magazine "Scientific American"，Introduced to the public why he questions “bet365 score”。For the meta-analysis completed by Kemmerer et al.，Gar thinks，“This is not surprising。Meta-analysis can calculate effect size，But in most cases the cause of the effect cannot be fully explained。This new study simply combines different effects that may be caused by different causes，Aggregation is calculated under the framework of ‘bet365 score’”。

Currently，Kahneman has not publicly responded to Gall or other recent challengers to the concept of “bet365 score”。But not long ago，Kahneman told an American science news media，"bet365 score" only appears in certain situations，“It is not a law of human nature that holds true in all contexts。Under some experiments，‘bet365 score’ does not appear，Each has its own reasons，But this does not violate ‘bet365 score’ – there are always exceptions，Almost any experiment has more than one interpretation”。Whatever，“bet365 score” has established itself in the field of decision science。“If a principle can help people understand a large number of phenomena，It just works。This does not mean that ‘bet365 score’ is real，It means it is useful。"Kahneman said。